XRP has returned to the critical $2.00 psychological floor after repeated failed attempts to sustain a rally, reflecting a fierce "tug of war" between large-scale distributors and long-term believers. Over the past week, major XRP whales have aggressively offloaded nearly $783 million in holdings, increasing the pressure for a deep correction. However, this selling is being countered by a quiet but powerful shift in long-term conviction that is currently stabilizing the token.

I. Whale Distribution Threatens Market Structure

The downward pressure is driven by a significant burst of distribution from frustrated large holders:

  • Massive Selling: Wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP sold over 390 million XRP, translating to more than $783 million at current prices, in the last seven days. This shows clear impatience among high-value holders who are realizing profits or cutting losses after expecting a stronger recovery.

  • Downside Pressure: This heavy distribution is typically a bearish signal that weighs heavily on market sentiment and liquidity, forcing the price back toward major support zones.

II. Long-Term Holders (LTHs) Provide a Counterweight

Despite the accelerating whale distribution, the market has not collapsed, thanks to renewed confidence among maturing investors:

  • Growing Conviction: HODL Waves data reveals that the share of XRP supply held by the 1-year to 2-year cohort increased significantly this week. These long-term holders, who acquired XRP less than a year ago, are choosing to retain their tokens despite the volatility.

  • The $2.00 Stabilization: This steadiness from LTHs is the primary reason XRP has managed to stabilize around the crucial $2.00 support level, softening the impact of the multi-million dollar distribution.

III. Conclusion and Outlook

XRP is trapped in a narrow consolidation range, likely to remain rangebound between $2.00 and $2.20 until a powerful directional catalyst emerges. The whale selling signals accelerating bearish momentum, but the conviction of long-term holders is proving to be a stable base. If bearish pressure strengthens and breaks the $1.94 support, the price risks a deeper decline toward $1.85, invalidating near-term bullish expectations. For now, the outcome depends on whether LTH accumulation can overwhelm the selling distribution.

⚠️ Important Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on on-chain metrics and analyst projections. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.