December 8 Bitcoin Market Early Report
Hello everyone, last week's article reminded everyone of the key resistance at 94000, and the price stopped near 94000 and began to pull back, reaching a low of around 87700. This week, we will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, mainly paying attention to this month's expectations for interest rate hikes in Japan, which will affect the future trend of Bitcoin. The specific analysis is as follows:
Macroeconomic Negative News
The Bank of Japan's potential interest rate hike statement indicates that the probability of a 25 basis point hike in December is about 91%, up from 58% at the end of November. This has raised market concerns about a reversal of global “carry trades,” which may prompt funds to flow out of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Additionally, domestic crackdowns and significant net outflows of Bitcoin spot ETFs in November have contributed to this negative sentiment. Today, BlackRock has seen a net outflow of 32490 million USD so far, making it difficult for prices to stage a significant rebound. Therefore, despite expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on the 11th of this month, it is unlikely to reverse the downward trend! After the rate cut is announced, there is a high probability of a small waterfall, so everyone needs to be cautious!
Technical Indicator Analysis
The morning market rebounded to around 91700, reaching the Fibonacci retracement line at 0.618. The market fluctuated quickly, and I remind everyone to directly position short with a brief thought. If you have entered, just be patient and wait!
After the daily chart showed a death cross signal, it began to decline all the way. The upper benchmark line at 94000 also failed to break through effectively last week. From the following chart, it can be clearly seen that the current price is still within the downward trend line. The morning rebound just touched the trend line and then continued to pull back. Friends who have not entered should continue to pay attention to the area around 91700 and 94000 to short it. The target is to pay attention to the support at the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud chart at 89000 and around the Fibonacci retracement of 50 near 87500. It is recommended to reduce positions to break even when the target is reached and then to gamble around 78400. This week, it is expected to touch the Bitcoin starting with 70, while for long positions, patience is still required. What does everyone think? Feel free to share your thoughts to discuss the subsequent trends together!
