Coin friends, I am Zhao Gongming. Today, the macro environment has sent us a 'confidence booster' - the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has stabilized at 86.2%, almost a certainty! But strangely, $SOL seems like a 'hopeless case', lingering around 134 and unable to even touch the threshold of 138. Follow Zhao Gongming to understand why the 'rate cut is beneficial' can't drive SOL! Is the market overestimating expectations in advance, or is it the calm before the storm?
News: The interest rate cut is no longer in question, but be careful of 'good news being fully priced in'!
The interest rate cut is a long-term benefit for risk assets, but you must understand: the market often reacts to expectations in advance. This rebound from a low position has likely already digested some of this optimistic sentiment.
The real risk is—when the interest rate cut actually happens, funds may instead 'sell the fact,' triggering a short-term pullback. Don't just look at the exciting news; pay attention to whether the price agrees!
Technical analysis: 138 is the 'watershed'; if it can't go up, it must look down!
The 1-hour chart is very clear: 138 is a key level of strength and weakness; it can only challenge 144 if it stands above it; if it can't, bears will regain strength.
Although MACD has a golden cross, it shows 'insufficient momentum,' indicating that the rebound is weak. If the price struggles to rise in the 135-136 area, it is likely to retest the 131-132 support, and if it breaks below, 125 may not hold either.
Zhao Gongming's daily sharing, if it helps you, you can follow Zhao Gongming, join the chat room to get first-hand news and entry points!
Zhao Gongming's views and strategies:
Zhao Gongming's views are clear: the trend remains bearish, and the rebound is an opportunity for you to short, not a reason to chase after prices!
Advice for holding positions: Don't let interest rate cut expectations cloud your judgment! If the price rebounds to around 135 and stagnates, reduce positions and set stop losses.
Advice for those wanting to enter the market: continue to short on the highs. The ideal short position is around 135, with a stop loss above 138. The first target is 131, and if it breaks, look towards 125.
In the cryptocurrency market, 'the more consistent the expectations, the more the market reverses.' When everyone is waiting for an interest rate cut to soar, it is often the most dangerous time.
If you are often confused by this kind of 'good news, weak prices' market, buying leads to drops and shorting leads to rises; if you want to know how to judge turning points in advance through 'expectation management' and 'key level breakthroughs,' you can follow Zhao Gongming. In the next issue, I will reveal to you: how to use the market sentiment before and after 'interest rate decisions' to seize high-probability swing opportunities, and no longer become a buyer after the good news is fully priced in! #美联储重启降息步伐
