Altcoins are currently closer to the bottom than the top.
If you zoom in on the right charts and observe the correct macro signals, you will find that they are sending such signals.
Most people are focused on M2, but the key signal in this cycle is U.S. small-cap stocks, specifically the Russell 2000 index (IWM).
IWM has just set its highest monthly closing price in history and is heading towards the 2025 peak, right at the top of the range.
When U.S. small-cap stocks experience this situation, it usually means increased liquidity in the U.S. market and the market's willingness to take on risk.
Altcoins and the Russell 2000 index are both related to U.S. liquidity, and during these phases, altcoins always experience strong rallies.
It can be clearly seen from the chart:
IWM has broken through or retested major levels from 2015, 2018, and 2021.
Each time this happens, BTC subsequently rises, while other cryptocurrencies lag behind a bit before following.
Currently, IWM has rebounded to 2025 highs, while Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remain below their respective peaks. This is the same lagging structure we saw before the significant volatility in cryptocurrencies in 2020-2021.
Throughout Bitcoin's history, true multi-year bear markets have never started when IWM reached new highs.
Every major bear market has occurred when small-cap stocks were weak, not when small-cap stocks were at historical highs.
Regarding Bitcoin itself:
- The higher time frame trend starting from the 2022 low remains bullish.
A Bitcoin is attempting to re-link with stocks again, moving in sync with risk assets rather than hedging against them.
Some exponential moving averages (EMA) and price levels have been breached on daily/lower time frames, but this has not changed the structure of the higher time frame (HTF). This looks like a mid-cycle pullback rather than the end of a cycle.
Now adding macro section
- The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle.
As financing and debt pressures increase, large banks are expected to adopt quantitative easing measures by early 2026.
- Trump is talking about abolishing income tax and providing a $2000 tariff rebate.
Now let's integrate everything:
- IWM has recorded the strongest monthly close ever and is approaching 2025 highs.
- Bitcoin remains in a bullish higher time frame structure.
Altcoins and the Russell 2000 index are both correlated with U.S. liquidity, which is on the rise.
Bitcoin and altcoins have never really started a bear market when small-cap cryptocurrencies have reached new highs.
2025-2026 macro catalysts (rate cuts, QE-like measures, potential tax relief)
- An increasing number of analysts predict that the cycle peak will come in 2026 instead of 2025.
This situation does not look like the beginning of a long-term bear market.
This looks like an extended cycle, and if this situation continues, Bitcoin and altcoins may still reach new highs in 2026.
