$ETH If we predict step by step from 2800 V 3239: After the upgrade of Fusaka, the bulls continue to ignite—Layer-2 fees drop by 40-60%, ETH demand rises by 30-50%, plus Vanguard's $11T platform opens mainstream ETF trading starting from 12/2, covering 50 million customers, traditional capital gateways wide open, pushing the probability of $3500 up to 75%.

3128 is a positive relay + oversold repair, RSI rebounding to 65 (neutral to strong), MACD golden cross solidified + volume of $24B (24h vol +132%), a true bullish signal strengthened, but beware of buying rumors and selling facts ETF net flow of $9.9M, limited institutional dip-buying.

The core range moves up to 3000-3200, with strong resistance at 3150-3200 (Fibonacci 0.618 + previous high), stabilizing or rushing towards $3500; strong support at 3000 below, otherwise minor probing to $2900.

News front: Fusaka dust settles + Vanguard flood + global risk warming (Fed rate cut expectations), positive dominance but low CEX reserves (8.7% circulation, lowest since 2015) causing volatility.

Light long positions or empty positions wait and see (cautious, wait for the gains and losses at 3150). If 3160-3180 stabilizes with volume, look at 3500 above, fallback to 3080 for light entry, strictly prohibit heavy positions chasing high, 3150 may easily become a short-term bullish trial.