#Bittensor ( $TAO ) Has a History of Explosive Breakouts — Can the Halving Trigger the Next One?

$TAO, which recently tapped a 7-month low, is finally showing signs of life — the price is up ~15% in just 8 days, climbing from $250 to ~$290. The renewed momentum lines up with growing attention toward Bittensor’s first four-year halving set for December 14, 2025, a key supply event traders are beginning to front-run.

Historically, $TAO rallies weren’t random — they aligned with AI-sector hype cycles, #Bitcoin capital rotation, and rising awareness of the network’s emission mechanics. The first major breakout delivered a 200% increase, primarily driven by the AI narrative surge. The next expansion printed ~63% as sentiment cooled, but liquidity improved. This was later followed by a surge of ~177% in mid-2025, driven by stronger Bitcoin momentum, altcoin rotation, and increased subnet participation.

But since then, $TAO has been stuck inside a wide consolidation band between $298–$471, eventually breaking lower to retest demand around $253–$265 — the same region previous rallies launched from.

If the upcoming #Halving delivers even a partial repeat of prior expansions, a move toward $540–$610 becomes statistically aligned with TAO’s historical behaviour in 4-5 weeks.

But lose the $250–$265 base, and this bullish setup collapses fast.