Don't be fooled by 93%! After the Federal Reserve's "fake fall", a surprise attack may come; your position is running naked!

Brothers, it's crazy! The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in December has soared to 93% on Polymarket, and the market is in a frenzy, as if a rate cut is already in the bag. But Zhou Yi tells you — this could be the biggest "expectation trap" of 2023! Did you see the small print on the other line? The probability of "not cutting rates" in January has quietly climbed to 68%!

What does this mean? It means that the market consensus may be brewing a collective "stampede." If there really is a rate cut in December, it will be an expectation coming to fruition, with all the good news already priced in; and right after that, January is highly likely to remain still or even release hawkish signals, enough to freeze the euphoric liquidity instantly. This operation is like giving you a piece of candy, then immediately taking away your whole box of chocolates!

Look at the lesson from the end of 2021: everyone thought the easing would continue, but the Federal Reserve made a sharp turn, and countless leveraged contracts were liquidated overnight, blood flowing like a river. This time the script may be more cunning — using December's "gentle rate cut" to numb you, and then using January's "pause" to catch you off guard. Are your long positions, your altcoins, your high leverage already dancing on the edge of a cliff?

What should retail investors do? Don't follow the emotional FOMO! Remember:

Reduce leverage, especially for cross-year positions — staying alive is the only way to see the next bull market.

Focus on allocating to anti-volatility assets — hold onto BTC and ETH spot firmly, don’t get easily shaken out.

Save enough bullets — if the market crashes due to an expectation reversal, that’s when you bend down to pick up diamonds.

The market is always smarter and more ruthless than you think. What it feeds you is often bait that it wants you to eat. A true hunter can smell risk when everyone is greedy and see opportunity when everyone is fearful.

 Follow Zhou Yi, this week in the village, we will break down the Federal Reserve's "verbal traps" and prepare for the first wave of turning points — we don’t predict the market, we only respond to the market. #隐私币生态普涨