I have seen people around me become millionaires overnight and also seen fortunes vanish in an instant, but I survived by using a "foolish method"—losing my initial capital of 200,000 down to 50,000, then rolling it up to a 10 million position. Today, I won't talk about metaphysics; I will just discuss the most basic survival logic. The following are all personal views and do not represent any investment advice.
1. The root of losing money: 90% of people fail due to "impulsive buying"
Eight years ago, when I first entered the cryptocurrency world, like most people: I chased news and bought high, sold low. When I saw a coin surge, I FOMOed in, only to get wrecked by a wave of corrections. At my worst, I lost 150,000 in a year and had to numb myself with beer due to insomnia.
Later I found that in a bull market, most people lose money, not because there are no opportunities, but because of 'greed': trying to catch everything like altcoins, old coins, hot coins, in the end, none are fully understood. For example, those low-priced old coins, which seem like 'picking up a bargain', are actually the 'corpses' of capital fleeing, while the market always chases new narratives.
2. My 'foolish method': focus on one sector, fully understand the main upward wave.
My strategy is extremely simple, even mocked as 'conservative':
Focus on new narratives, abandon old sentiments.
Each cycle has a new main line (like DeFi in 2021, AI coins in 2023), I will research the technical background, community activity, and leading projects in advance, only choosing 1-2 sectors to dive deep. 'Buy new, not old' - new coins have traffic and consensus of capital, old coins should not be touched unless there is a disruptive upgrade.
Position management: allocate funds like a miser.
Initial position not exceeding 10%, confirm the trend before gradually increasing to 20%;
The total position should never be fully leveraged, at least leave 30% cash to deal with black swans;
Do not trade more than 3 times a day, avoid frequent actions that wear down principal.
Stop loss is like breathing, take profits without being greedy.
Stop loss unconditionally if losses exceed 10%, do not average down, do not stubbornly hold;
Take profits in stages: sell half when earning 20%, let the remaining half run with profits.
This method allowed me to seize the main line of AI coins in 2023, a base investment increased 100 times in three months, directly rewriting the asset hierarchy.
3. Contracts are not the devil, but they must have 'iron rules'.
I have earned eight figures from contracts and also blown up six figures, summarizing three bloody rules:
Leverage ≤ 5 times: high leverage is a 'suicide tool', even with a 99% win rate, it can be pierced by a 1% fluctuation;
Refuse to be fully leveraged: each time you enter a position, do not exceed 5% of your principal, only use profits to increase positions after making gains;
Stop loss orders should never be offline: set stop losses as naturally as breathing to avoid emotional holding.
4. Cycles are iron rules: the end of the bull market clears altcoins, the bear market practices internal skills.
The crypto world has a four-year cycle, judging the top is very simple: when barbers and delivery guys ask you 'which coin can make you rich', decisively clear out altcoins and only keep BTC/ETH as the base.
In a bear market, 95% of coins will drop by 90%, but this is also a layout opportunity:
Regularly invest in mainstream coins to average down costs;
Learn on-chain data and project fundamentals to prepare for the next cycle.
5. Mindset determines survival: enduring is winning.
The crypto world is not lacking in smart people, what is lacking is 'those who can endure'.
Fight against FOMO: many coins surge daily, but 99% are traps. I only earn money within my understanding, missing out is not scary, losing everything is scary;
Regularly review: record the emotions of each transaction (such as 'fear of missing out or chasing high' or 'panic selling'), identify your psychological weaknesses;
Stay away from noise: read less about community hype, focus more on on-chain data (like Glassnode large holder positions), maintain independent thinking.
The last sincere word.
There is no holy grail in the crypto world, my 'foolish method' is essentially extreme restraint + discipline. Instead of asking 'which coin can double', it's better to ask yourself: can I stick to my plan when the asset drops by 90%? Those who survive are the ultimate winners.
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