The naked K chart confession of a female trader
After trading for a long time, I really feel that market news is like a drama. Today it shouts 'good news', tomorrow it explodes 'bad news', and the result of following along often leads to getting hit from both sides. But K lines are different; they are like a diary, with capital movements and the main force's thoughts all honestly engraved on the chart. I often tell my friends: 'News is the script, K lines are the reality.'
1. Monthly line determines direction: long shadow + increased volume stagnation = change signal
Last month, when the monthly line was closed, a long upper shadow with increased volume clearly told us: the bears are going to exert force. At that time, I reminded everyone in the group that November was very likely to drop, and looking back now, the market indeed acknowledged it.
The monthly line is like a compass on a map; if the direction is wrong, no matter how much you struggle, it's all in vain. The current key support is around 82250. If the monthly line's body breaks below this, the downside space may open up completely.
Two, weekly line looks at momentum: a full-bodied bearish candle = bears control the market.
The recent weekly line has crashed cleanly, with almost no lower shadow, indicating that there is no one to take the selling pressure. What's harsher is that it directly broke the ascending trendline since the bull market began, which is a sign of a weakening mid-term structure.
In terms of support, 85179 and 78430 are two key positions. However, if the bears continue to exert pressure, only around 80,000 might a bottom rebound form. But be careful, the support at 94277 hasn't broken yet; if it holds here, there may be a rebound to pull back to the trendline and deceive some people.
Three, daily line plays psychology: a downward continuation is the most frustrating.
The daily line is now very tangled; it has neither broken levels nor stopped falling signals, a typical 'downward continuation'. This is the easiest time to lose money—bulls think the bottom-fishing opportunity has come, while bears think it can still fall, resulting in both sides being washed out.
My experience is: if the candlestick doesn't give a clear direction, just sit back and watch the show. For instance, before reversal signals like hammer lines or engulfing patterns appear, it's better to miss out than to make a mistake.
Four, lessons from the 4-hour line: conflicting time frames = stop loss warning.
Let me share an embarrassing story: the day before yesterday at dawn, I was watching the market and, in a daze, saw the 1-hour line break support, so I carelessly placed a short order. As a result, I forgot that the 4-hour line hadn't closed yet and got stopped out by a false signal.
What is the biggest fear in naked K trading? Conflicting signals from different time frames! For example, if the 1-hour line breaks, but the 4-hour still holds support, entering at that moment is just gambling. Later I learned my lesson—smaller time frames should obey larger time frames, waiting for one more K line to close can help avoid many pitfalls.
Five, my strategy: short on the rise, but where is 'high'?
From a broad perspective, the outlook is bearish, but the specific operation is difficult in judging 'where is the high point'. The current price is jumping up and down near the support level; what seems like a breakthrough is actually a false move.
My habit is:
The monthly and weekly lines set the tone: the larger cycle is downward, and rebounds are opportunities to short.
Daily line find position: act when close to previous highs or trendline resistance.
4-hour wait for signals: open a position only when a pin bar (hammer line) or bearish engulfing appears.
For example, right now, if the price rebounds to the weekly trendline (around 96800-97500), and at the same time, the daily line shows a shooting star, I would consider shorting. But if it breaks directly below 94277, I would wait for a confirmation of a pullback before following up.
Lastly, let me say something heart-wrenching.
The market is most adept at using volatility to deceive, but candlesticks will never lie on their own—it's your own mindset that deceives you. If you're holding on at high positions, don't get washed out by a rebound; if you haven't entered the market, don't chase prices due to FOMO (fear of missing out). Remember: candlesticks are a map, not a prophet. What you can do is follow the route it draws, not create your own path blindly.
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