Twelve years ago, when I first entered the crypto space, I criticized the 'four-year cycle' as self-brainwashing by the old-timers—until this wave from six figures plummeting to five figures made me realize that cycles are not just stories; they are patterns built with real money.
Recently, the backend has been flooded with questions like 'Is the bull market not over, or has the bear market arrived?' Today, I won't beat around the bush and will directly share my honest thoughts: this wave is not a correction; it's the bear market knocking at the door.
Let's get straight to the point. I've been watching these signals for eight years and have never missed: first, the frenzy of speculative stocks is a doomsday alarm. The small stocks that doubled in a single day in May 2021 and the obscure coins that were partying in the 110,000 range at the beginning of the month were identical—it's the last madness of the bull market; it is always 'fools celebrating while smart people run away.' At that time, I shouted in the community to 'quickly reduce positions' and was ridiculed as an 'outdated person who doesn't understand the market.' What happened? Nearly 20 billion dollars in high-leverage contracts were liquidated across the network, equivalent to flushing all this year's gains down the drain. Those who chased the highs now probably can't even find a place to cry.
Second, the iron law of halving cycles cannot be avoided. I reviewed nearly three rounds of halving data, and the 18th month after halving has always been a 'magical node' where bulls turn into bears. This year just happens to fall at this time point. If Bitcoin has institutional funds supporting it, it can hold up, but those small stocks without fundamentals or funding attention will be directly halved time and again, with some even losing 80-90%—this is not a correction; it's the market 'squeezing out bubbles', eliminating those trash assets that rely on story speculation.
Third, a double whammy from technical and macro perspectives. The 200-day moving average for three years and the annual line have both been breached. Now the market is betting on the support level of 72,000, but I have to pour cold water on this: support is like a paper wall; breaking it is just a matter of time. Looking at the macro picture, the recent hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve are more chilling than the winter wind. Several big shots have repeatedly stated 'no interest rate cuts', and combined with the tightening liquidity from the government shutdown, hoping to rely on a 'Christmas rally' to turn things around? Don’t dream—I've been watching Christmas trends for 8 years; there’s only 'leftover eggs' during a bear market, not 'Christmas'.
My judgment is clear: by the end of the year, it is highly likely to oscillate in the range of 80,000 - 90,000. Once it falls below 80,000, the bear market will be firmly established. But I am not worried at all; I even think it’s an opportunity—ETF has still seen a net inflow of 253 million USD in a single day. Big money hasn’t run away; they are just sitting on the side eating seeds and watching the show!
The crypto world has never had straight rises and falls. The phrase 'what rises to extremes will fall, and what falls to extremes will rise' is something I have engraved on my computer screen. Instead of getting tangled every day about whether it’s a bull or bear market, it’s better to tighten your bullets, fix your direction, and not follow the small stocks blindly. Real opportunities never lie in KTV but at the entrance of the ICU—patience is worth more than the coins in your hand.
Next, I will be monitoring the key level of 72,000 every day. Once it breaks, I will immediately devise a response strategy and compile a list of quality assets resistant to declines. Follow me, and I will help you avoid pitfalls and make profits in the crypto world—after all, in this game of who lasts longer, it’s better to follow an experienced driver who has been watching the market for 12 years than to blindly venture on your own! I will also share exclusive indicators for cycle judgment; if you miss it, you will truly lose big!
