The Federal Reserve #fomc is here! Three consecutive cuts or a surprising hawkish stance? The direction of interest rates will determine the market trends for 2026!
#美联储会议 The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is set for December 9–10. This meeting will not only include an interest rate decision but also the latest #点阵图 and economic forecasts 📊. The market refers to this as the "most important path meeting of the year," as the interest rates for 2026 and global asset prices may have clues buried here.
The macro background looks quite clear: inflation is slowly approaching the 2% target but is not yet stable; the job market has shifted from "hot" to "cooling down," with a slight rise in unemployment rates and increased layoffs; there have already been two rate cuts of 25bp this year, and if another cut happens this time, it would be a "three consecutive cuts" 💥.
Market pricing is almost locked in: the probability of a 25bp cut is about 94%, leaving 7% for no change, and almost no one is betting on a cut of 50bp+ or an increase 🎲.
However—what truly influences the market is:
1️⃣ The update of the dot plot regarding the terminal rate for 2026 and the pace of rate cuts
2️⃣ The weight given to inflation/employment in the statement and press conference
3️⃣ Powell's forward guidance on policy
Signals may switch between "dovish cut," "neutral cut," and "hawkish cut," with completely different reactions from the stock market, bond market, and crypto assets ⚡️.
In simple terms, this time it's not just about "another 25bp cut," but a key meeting that sets the tone for global liquidity and the performance of risk assets in 2026.