Analyst Chloe, author of the HTX DeepThink column and researcher at HTX Research, noted that as the end of the year approaches, the volatility of the global macroeconomic environment is increasing due to the divergence of policies between the United States and Japan, creating a tightening pressure on global risky assets, including Bitcoin.
The fundamental driving forces and conflicting signals:
Uncertainty in U.S. Policy: Although inflation data shows a slowdown and increasing market expectations for interest rate cuts, news from the Trump camp that Kevin Hassett may take over the Federal Reserve has led to rising bond yields.
Shift in Japanese Policy: The Japan Times revealed that Bank of Japan officials are inclined to raise the policy interest rate to 0.75% (the highest level since 1995) at the December 19 meeting, increasing the policy divergence between the United States and Japan.
Bitcoin Market Performance:
Institutional Defense: ETF fund flows are negative, and the volume of futures liquidation is declining, indicating that institutions are in a defensive position.
Options Contradiction: Market implied volatility (IV) has generally decreased (short-term IV fell from 57% to 48%), indicating weak volatility expectations. However, Amberdata's risk reversal index remains negative (around -4.9), suggesting that investors still prefer to hedge against downside risks through put options.
The report confirms that large funds have lowered the upward target range for the end of the year to between 100000 and 118000 dollars, while the range of 80000 to 82000 dollars is widely seen as a key support range for Bitcoin.
