Bitcoin short term trend is STILL bearish. The 95K resistance defines the structure which implies a lower low is likely to follow in the near future. There is also a failed high off the 93,500 area which suggests further weakness as well (see arrow). IF the 88K area breaks again (trend line break), a test of the 78K low area becomes a higher probability. IF the 95K resistance is broken instead, it cancels out this scenario. It is not about which way I think the market is going to move, it is about what the MARKET chooses. Our job is to look for confirmations, manage risk and adjust to NEW information.
This week we have the FOMC meeting and press conference. This event carries a LOT of weight especially because the Fed is expected to provide guidance on how they plan to shape monetary policy in the near future. The market has priced in another 25 basis point cut, which means what will move the market dramatically is what is said as the press conference. This event has the potential to change the Bitcoin price structure and short term expectation as well. Going into this with opinions is a sub optimal way to mange risk around such an event.
While the major index markets like S&P and Nasdaq are also testing potential resistance levels, IF the Fed unveils and dovish outlook prices will likely grind higher. Also it is important to keep in mind in the coming year (May) Chairman Powell will be out and a new appointee will take over. WHOEVER this person is (still not officially known), WHATEVER they say in interviews, etc., before he is officially the chairman will carry MORE weight than Powell. Important to KEEP in mind for the coming year.
When markets are coming up to an event such as this FOMC, it is better to keep expectations low and take whatever you can get. For example, if you play the bullish trend line on a 4 hour chart for a swing trade, do not look for more than 1:1 trades even for brief swing trades. It is the same if the resistance levels are tested: wait f or confirmations, whether it is a day or swing trade, and keep profit objectives tighter than usual. Markets are likely to become more and more indecisive going into the day of the meeting.
If 78K to 80K support is tested again, watch for a lower low. 73K is a major support. These levels are attractive for investing in my opinion.
Trade at your own Risk 👍
Best Regards, Trade Cryptocurrency
Stay Tuned for Further Updates.
