Family, ASTER's recent moves have really taken the show to the next level! As soon as the price dropped, the project team immediately announced: the daily buyback amount skyrocketed from $3 million to $4 million, claiming it would be completed in 8 to 10 days, with the fee income being directly used to buy and destroy coins. Sounds impressive, right? But the seasoned investors know, the crypto world is deep, and we've seen many cases where they just shout without putting in money. Today, let's break down whether this buyback is truly 'market protection' or a new trick to fleece investors.
1. Buyback data: Looks impressive, but the key is 'sustainability'.
First, let's talk about the data. The scale of this buyback from ASTER is indeed significant, with $4 million in real money pouring in every day. According to the official statement, 50% of the fee income will be used for buyback and destruction, while the other half will be reinvested in ecological incentives. But here comes the problem: where does the money for the buyback come from? The answer is fee income. In other words, if the trading volume declines and the fee income decreases, the buyback scale will have to shrink!
For example, ASTER bought back about $160 million in the S2 season, but most of it was completed at market highs. Now that the coin price has dropped, the same amount of money can buy more coins, which seems cost-effective. However, if the income doesn't keep up, the buyback is 'water without a source.' So, don’t be fooled by the loud claims; the key is to monitor whether the fee income is stable. If trading volume collapses, even the loudest buyback slogans will be in vain!
2. Is the project party really supporting the price? Or is it just a handoff?
ASTER CEO Leonard has repeatedly emphasized that buybacks are meant to balance the interests of holders and traders, but seasoned investors should be cautious: the project party has too much concentrated power! Currently, the circulating supply accounts for only 29.6% of the total supply, and most tokens are still locked up, especially with 45% of the ecological fund directly postponed to unlock in 2035. This means that if the project party wants to pump the price, they can easily create hype through buybacks to facilitate selling at high prices.
However, there are positive signs: ASTER is indeed publicly disclosing buyback data on-chain, and a new round of buybacks will start on December 10, coinciding with the unlocking of 200 million tokens. If the buyback can cover the unlocking selling pressure, the coin price may stabilize. But don’t forget, project parties in the crypto space are best at 'using good news to conceal selling,' especially when they announce buybacks before unlocking, which easily attracts retail investors.
3. Comparing with peers: Is ASTER's buyback considered conscientious?
Compared to the leader Hyperliquid, ASTER's buyback strategy is more 'flexible.' Hyperliquid automatically buys back and destroys 98% of income, which is simple and brutal; while ASTER is 50% buyback + 50% ecological incentives, trying to please both holders and traders. The advantage of this model is that it can attract active users, but the downside is that it may dilute the buyback effect—like turning on a faucet while draining water, the water level rises slowly.
But Aster has an advantage: it doesn’t lack cash flow. The platform has achieved positive revenue, which can support continuous buybacks, which is better than those projects that burn money and make grand promises. As long as fee income > token release value, buybacks can genuinely boost the coin price.
4. Advice from experienced investors: Don’t blindly chase; focus on these three indicators!
Is the fee income stable: The money for buybacks comes from fees. If trading volume continues to decline, buybacks will inevitably become unsustainable. Check on-chain data daily to see if real income matches the scale of buybacks!
Can the unlocking selling pressure be offset: On December 15, 200 million tokens will be unlocked. If the buyback volume can offset the selling pressure, the coin price may stabilize; otherwise, be careful as good news may turn into bad news.
Is the project's action transparent: Aster claims that on-chain data is public, but the buyback address must be verified for actual transactions. Don't just listen to slogans; on-chain data won't lie!
5. My opinion: It's possible to speculate in the short term, but in the long term, it depends on the product's hard power.
To be honest, Aster's buyback will definitely boost sentiment in the short term, but in the long term, it still depends on whether the product can perform. The CEO has been emphasizing the development of a privacy L1 chain, launching on the mainnet in Q1 next year. If it can achieve 'CEX-level experience + on-chain privacy,' it may indeed attract institutional funds. However, the competition is fierce now; Hyperliquid and dYdX are not easy opponents. Aster cannot rely solely on buybacks to support the price; it must deliver real value!
Summary: Buybacks are not a lifeline but a touchstone. If the project party is genuinely supporting the price, they should continuously disclose data and optimize the product; if they are just making noise to fleece investors, the on-chain data will eventually reveal the truth. Remember this: in the crypto space, don't just listen to what they say; pay attention to what they do on-chain!
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