When the global liquidity tsunami meets the crazy buying frenzy of institutional whales, a disruptive super market is quietly brewing.
Are you still listening to KOL telling you that the 'bear market is not over'? Wake up! The real smart money is voting with action—since 2025, over 67% of the funds flowing into mainstream cryptocurrencies come from institutions, while retail investors' attention has long been distracted by the short-term hype of Meme coins.
The balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has dropped to its lowest point in six years, with chips flowing from retail hands to institutional vaults at an unprecedented speed.
---
01 Cycle insights, looking at the underlying logic of this bull market from institutional behavior
The truth of the market often goes against the clamor of the community. While you are still entangled in daily fluctuations, the giant wheel of traditional finance has quietly turned.
The total holdings of the US spot Bitcoin ETF have reached approximately 1.22 million BTC, occupying a significant share of the circulating supply. This is not speculation but 'asset replacement'—injecting liquidity from the traditional world into the digital future.
Take MicroStrategy as an example; this company recently made a move to increase its Bitcoin holdings by $1.05 billion, and its total holding market value has exceeded the foreign exchange reserves of many small and medium-sized countries.
Analysts point out that the effective demand from institutions for Bitcoin compared to the available supply may have a ratio as high as 80:1. This explains why the price can be quickly lifted after each deep correction—below is the insatiable appetite of institutions.
02 Narrative Evolution, two core themes are reshaping the value foundation of the crypto world
Unlike the previous retail bull market driven by 'DeFi Summer' and 'NFT Frenzy,' the engine of this cycle is based on two more solid narratives: institutionalization and asset tokenization (RWA).
Wall Street is no longer just a bystander. From BlackRock to Morgan Stanley, top financial institutions are incorporating crypto assets into their balance sheets through compliant products. This is not only a capital inflow but also an upgrade of the credit foundation of the entire asset class.
More disruptive is the RWA narrative. Putting trillions of dollars of traditional assets (government bonds, real estate, private equity) on-chain has become an irreversible trend. Over 80% of RWA projects choose Ethereum as their underlying infrastructure, which explains why institutions view Ethereum as the 'equity of the global on-chain economy.'
03 Price Projection, looking at target ranges from historical patterns and capital flows
The trend of Bitcoin has never been a random walk. Combining the macro environment with on-chain data, a clear path is emerging.
The current macro background is strikingly similar to several past liquidity expansions. The liquidity released by major global economies to stimulate the economy needs to find an outlet like a tsunami. In the current context of high valuations for traditional assets, the crypto market has become the most attractive 'value pit.'
Technical analysts point out that once Bitcoin confirms a breakout above previous highs and stabilizes, according to the measured gains of historical bull market cycles, a medium-term target pointing to the range of $150,000 to $180,000 is completely reasonable. Some more aggressive predictions based on institutional flow models see the peak of this cycle exceeding $220,000.
04 Risk Warning, the darkest hour before dawn coexists with washing and opportunities
Of course, the road to the stars and the sea is never smooth. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift remains a sword of Damocles hanging over the market; any hawkish signal could trigger severe volatility.
The single-day liquidation of over $17 billion in October 2025 reminds us that the market's leverage structure remains fragile. The fact that professional traders have not fully shifted to a bullish attitude indicates that the real 'FOMO' sentiment may not have arrived yet—that may be the signal for the market to enter its final frenzy stage.
For ordinary investors, the most dangerous moment may be now: the market is rising hesitantly, and each correction feels like the end of the bull market, while the real significant gains often occur after everyone is convinced that the bull market has arrived.$ETH
$BNB $ASTER #加密市场观察 #美联储重启降息步伐 #ETH走势分析 #美国结束政府停摆 #美国初请失业金人数 
