Current market attention has continued to decline to a freezing point, but this week will welcome the most important macro event of the year—the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting.

Although a rate hike of 25bp is already a known factor, the real game has yet to begin. The market has fully priced in known information, while the real turning point lies in next year's interest rate path, changes in the dot plot, hints of tapering pace, and the tone of Powell's speech.

Looking back to the end of last year, the market was full of expectations for a rate cut cycle, combined with the optimistic sentiment of Trump's election victory, the market once "popped the champagne early," only to be suddenly doused by Powell's remarks.

Market sentiment shifted from "restless" to "overall sluggish," with the key being his statement on the pace of rate cuts in 2025—the dot plot only indicated two rate cuts, while the actual rate cuts for the whole year were four. The gap between expectation and reality is often the core source of market volatility.

Therefore, Powell's wording this time is particularly crucial. It is worth noting that after the new chairman takes office, even if aggressive rate cuts are not adopted, it is expected to align with Trump's policy direction, gradually pushing monetary policy towards a genuine rate-cutting channel.

The question is—will this December's monetary policy meeting and dot plot again "douse cold water" on the market?

The dot plot may suggest two rate cuts, but reality could land at four. Currently, the Federal Reserve finds it difficult to maintain a tough stance; if economic downturn pressures arise, they will face a crucial choice: to stick to the inflation target and bear the risk of recession; or to shift towards preserving the economy and injecting hope into the market for next year? Whichever choice is made, it will profoundly impact future trends.

In addition, there is another potential variable worth noting: the currently less discussed possibility of expanding the balance sheet. If related expectations emerge in the future, the liquidity environment may significantly improve, becoming the suspense for the market's upward movement.

In this moment of low sentiment, it is worth maintaining a focus on structural opportunities. $BTC $ETH #比特币VS代币化黄金 #美SEC推动加密创新监管