🔥 The market's dual mainlines are igniting: interest rate cut bets × the rise of stablecoins
The expectation of interest rate cuts is at its peak, but beneath the revelry, cracks are quietly spreading...
📉 Interest rate cuts have gone 'crazy', but consensus is being torn apart
The market is betting wildly: the probability of interest rate cuts in December has soared to >80%.
However, there is still intense wrangling within the Federal Reserve—inflation remains stubborn, yet economic data shows signs of fatigue. This contradiction casts a shadow of uncertainty over all predictions.
⚠️ Beware of 'good news fully priced in equals bad news'
The S&P 500 is approaching the key resistance of 6900 points, and the expectation of interest rate cuts may have been fully priced in. Once the news hits, profit-taking may occur en masse, and market volatility could erupt.
📈 Strange Signal: Long-term U.S. Treasury yields are rising instead of falling.
With such strong expectations for rate cuts, why are long-term U.S. Treasury yields still rising? What exactly is the market worried about? Is it recurring inflation? Or debt concerns?
💡 Operational Idea: Advance Layout to Respond to Market Changes
・Keep a close eye on the S&P 6880-6900 region; if it cannot break through, support may look to 6700.
・After interest rate cuts, funds may rotate from giant tech stocks to small-cap and value stocks.
・Plan in advance to respond to market fluctuations after 'news clarity.'
🚀 Another hidden line: Stablecoins are reshaping the U.S. Treasury market.
The tokenized U.S. Treasury market has exceeded $7.4 billion, with growth rates even surpassing traditional stablecoins. Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity have quietly positioned themselves to compete in this new battlefield.
🔗 Strongest Driving Force: The U.S. (GENIUS Act) opens the door to compliance.
The bill explicitly requires stablecoins to have a 1:1 reserve of high-quality assets and recognizes that they do not fall under securities—clearing obstacles for institutional entry.
🌍 It's not just finance, but a new strategy for 'weaponizing' the dollar.
The U.S. Treasury has viewed compliant stablecoins as a new tool for expanding the influence of the dollar, targeting future shares of the global digital economy.
⚠️ Behind the brightness: Risks cannot be ignored.
・Stablecoin issuers have become significant buyers of U.S. Treasuries, creating new demand.
・However, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warns: When funds concentrate and flow out, it may cause severe shocks to the U.S. Treasury market.
・Key Choice: Transparent and compliant issuers are the way to go; beware of sudden 'decoupling' and systemic risks.
📢 Followed Topics:
#美联储降息倒计时 #稳定币爆发 #美债新玩家 #资金轮动 #加密市场联动
✨ Tip: The market breeds risks in celebration and hides opportunities in divergence. Stay clear-headed, plan ahead, and you can navigate through the cycle.