The Federal Reserve's decision is about to land, beware of the risk of chasing high
At 3 AM this Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision for December. Although the market generally predicts a rate cut and sees this as a reason to be optimistic about the rise of Bitcoin, I believe that this favorable news has already been digested by the market in advance. As the probability expectation has risen sharply from 30% to 80%, the subsequent driving force for the price of cryptocurrencies will clearly weaken.
It is precisely because of this that I have maintained a conservative view on the rise. Since the rebound from around 80600, most voices in the market are firmly bullish, but I have always characterized it as a rebound, rather than the beginning of a significant rise. Even if there is a spike after the interest rate decision, it is likely to be a "trap to entice buyers," and it will be difficult to form a unilateral upward trend.
I maintain my original judgment: Bitcoin is more likely to maintain a high-level range oscillation in the fourth quarter and will not easily break through.
From a technical perspective, the current trend shows an oscillating upward movement, with the hourly chart repeatedly surging and falling back, but the closing price is gradually rising. The daily line has continuously closed with gains, and the strength of the rebound seems relatively strong. Various indicators such as MACD and RSI indicate a short-term bullish advantage, but overall it is still in an oscillating pattern, so it is not advisable to blindly chase the rise.
Today's operational thoughts:
Focus on the 93000-92000 area for short positions in Bitcoin, with a stop loss above 94000, and a target of 90200-89200; a pullback to 89000-90000 can be considered for long positions, with a stop loss below 88000 and a target of 91700-92700.
For Ethereum, reference the 3180-3140 area for short positions, with a stop loss above 3230 and a target of 3060-3010; a pullback to 3010-3050 can be considered for long positions, with a stop loss below 2960 and a target of 3100-3150.
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