Qi He is here! I just stared at the ETH one-hour chart, the market is heating up, the price is steadily above 3140, the MACD is crossing above the zero line, the red bars are shrinking, and the green bars are stirring. That's right, the trend is upward, I know your heart is racing right now, and there's only one question in your mind: Tonight, can it push forward and reach that high pressure level of 3230?
Look at the chart, 3230 is a tough nut to crack, it was hammered down the last time it rebounded to this area, that is clearly a pressure point. Although the momentum is good now, it needs a huge trading volume to surge directly. Currently, there are signs of this, but it still needs a little more fire.
News aspect:
The Federal Reserve wants to implement a 'hawkish rate cut.' Doesn't that sound contradictory? A rate cut is supposed to inject liquidity, which should be good for all risk assets, including our coins. But what does 'hawkish' mean? It means: even though I've cut rates this time, I'm still tough; I’m telling you that I might not continue to cut in the future! It's like giving you a piece of candy and then immediately saying with a stern face, 'This won't happen again.' This could cause huge expectations chaos and divergence in the market; once the dot plot is released, volatility might be even more intense. So, this news might be emotionally positive in the short term, but in the medium to long term, it buries a 'policy divergence' bomb.
Technical aspect: The trend is on your side.
It's clearly shown on the chart, the MACD white and yellow lines are above the 0 axis, still in a golden crossover trend. What signal is this? Simply put, short-term bulls are dominant, and energy is still accumulating. The price standing above the key level of 3050 itself is a sign of strength.
Qi He's personal opinion:
Tonight to tomorrow, I believe the probability of directly breaking through 3230 is only 40%. A more likely scenario is: taking advantage of the upward momentum and rate cut expectations, it may test around 3230, then face resistance and fall back, entering a period of volatility. The most recent and critical support below is 3050! This level must not be broken; if it is, sentiment will weaken, and it may really test the stronger support at 2910.
Follow Qi He, not just to see the analysis, but also to learn methods to cope with volatility. Tonight, I will stay with everyone to watch the market!
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