Everyone is waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on Thursday. Everyone knows that the #美联储重启降息步伐 cut of 25 basis points is almost a no-brainer; instead, the focus will be on the trend after the cut, specifically the #鲍威尔讲话 !

Will he hint that "after this cut, we will stop," or will he leave the market with something to ponder? Every word he uses will be amplified and interpreted by the market.

After the 25 basis point cut in October, Powell warned that we need to be wary of a rebound in inflation and emphasized that the December rate cut "is far from a done deal" — since March 2021, the inflation rate has consistently exceeded the Fed's 2% target. Recent weak labor market data and PCE data showing a slowdown in inflation continue to bolster expectations for rate cuts. Meanwhile, last week, the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. hit a new low in over three years, which eased concerns about the rapid deterioration of the labor market but complicated the Fed's policy assessment due to data divergence.

Various external factors further increased the difficulty of decision-making: concerns about fiscal spending and large-scale tax cuts, tariff uncertainties, worries about the Fed's independence, and a government shutdown lasting 43 days that hindered the release of key economic data, all exacerbated the uncertainty in the policy path.

In this situation, the market could completely bounce along with the flow of information. If Powell speaks in a "dovish" manner (implying more cuts), the risks may keep playing and dancing.

The worst fear is the "black swan": if there is no rate cut, there’s no need for analysis — just fasten your seatbelt.

There are two days left until the rate cut; during these two days, one should eat and prepare for the big opportunities on the day of the cut. Winning means enjoying oneself, while losing won’t lead to significant losses.