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12 Month Interest Rate Decision Outlook: If Liquidity Reverses, ETH Will Be One of the First Assets to Rally

This Thursday's interest rate decision may be the last event this year to impact market direction. A rate cut is almost a consensus in the market, but what truly determines the strength of the market is whether the Federal Reserve will initiate "bond purchases" to replenish liquidity.

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① High Probability of Rate Cut, Sentiment Begins to Warm

Since November, several Federal Reserve officials have released dovish signals, basically confirming a unified direction.

Once the rate cut is implemented, risk assets usually benefit immediately, with a particularly large elasticity for $ETH .

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② If the Dot Plot is More Accommodative, ETH Valuation Space Will Expand Further

If the number of rate cuts in 2026 is adjusted upward, the market will re-evaluate tech assets.

ETH has advantages such as supply deflation, L2 expansion, cost reduction from Fusaka, and staking yields, becoming increasingly attractive the lower the interest rates.

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③ But the Real Key is Bond Purchases: Once Liquidity Arrives, the Crypto Market Will React Immediately

Currently, reserves are relatively tight, and short-term rates frequently spike.

If this meeting announces short bond purchases or increases repurchases, liquidity will improve rapidly, and ETH is the most sensitive to such changes.

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④ Powell's Tone May Be Hawkish, But As Long As the Faucet is Slightly Opened, the Market Will Be Bullish

Inflation is still present, but the pressure is not as strong as it was at the beginning of the year.

What the market cares about is: Will liquidity return?

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⑤ Conclusion: ETH and Ethereum Meme Coins Will Move with Liquidity

• No Bond Purchases → Market is More Volatile

• Bond Purchases → ETH and Ethereum-Related Assets Will Activate First

Finally, a reminder:

**If you want to position yourself in Ethereum meme coins early, take a look at my ID name.