BTC is rising again, and the financial market is looking towards Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision. Expected rate cuts may trigger a significantly stronger upward impulse than before.
Bitcoin costs over 91,800 USD — the market expects a rate cut.
Arthur Hayes forecasts the start of a new liquidity wave.
Why is bitcoin rising and what does the Fed have to do with it?
BTC has surpassed the 90,000 USD level, driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts in the USA. Recent labor market data signals a slowdown, which increases the likelihood of monetary policy easing.
Michael Wu from Amber Group emphasizes that cryptocurrency funding markets react to macro factors faster than traditional assets. Funding spreads change dynamically, and institutions shift liquidity between CeFi and DeFi, optimizing strategies.
But the biggest excitement comes from Arthur Hayes' analysis. He claims that bitcoin is entering a phase similar to 2023 — a period of liquidity explosion.
Where would it come from? Hayes points to the cycle of operations of the U.S. Department of the Treasury:
– when the government spends funds from TGA → injects USD into the system → risky assets rise,
– when it rebuilds TGA through debt issuance → drains liquidity → assets fall.
In 2025, liquidity was declining — Fed QT and debt issuance were constraining the market. But now:
✔ QT has been halted,
✔ banks are lending again,
✔ TGA is approaching the target level.
Hayes argues that this is a turning point — and that bitcoin may enter one of the strongest bullish periods of this cycle.
