šļø FOMC THIS WEEK: The -0.64 Correlation That Could Move Bitcoin
The December FOMC meeting is days away. Everyone's guessing what happens next.
I'm not guessing. I'm measuring.
The key number: -0.64
My macro correlation engine shows BTC-TNX at -0.64 (strong negative).
TNX = 10-Year Treasury Yield. This is the market's real-time vote on Fed policy.
What -0.64 means:
When yields DROP ā Bitcoin tends to RISE
When yields RISE ā Bitcoin tends to FALL
This correlation has STRENGTHENED since my last analysis. Bitcoin is increasingly sensitive to rate expectations.
Current macro picture (14-day):
ā BTC-TNX: -0.64 (strong negative) ā FOMC driver
ā BTC-SPY: +0.37 (moderate positive)
ā BTC-VIX: -0.34 (moderate negative)
ā BTC-DXY: -0.12 (weak negative)
ā Regime: RISK-ON TRENDING
ā Sentiment: NEUTRAL
What this setup tells us:
Bitcoin is positioned as a RATE-SENSITIVE risk asset.
The -0.64 TNX correlation is the strongest signal. If Fed delivers the expected 25bp cut:
Treasury yields likely drop
BTC benefits from -0.64 inverse correlation
If Fed surprises hawkish:
Yields spike
BTC faces headwinds
The market expects:
CME FedWatch: ~85-90% probability of 25bp cut
But here's the edge: it's not about IF they cut. It's about Powell's TONE and forward guidance.
Dovish cut + soft 2025 outlook = yields drop further = BTC pump
Hawkish cut + cautious guidance = yields hold = muted reaction
On-chain status right now:
ā Whale Impact: MEDIUM
ā Fee Status: LOW
ā No panic positioning detected
Whales are waiting, not rushing. Smart money wants clarity before big moves.
Fear & Greed: 24 (Fear)
Retail is cautious. But regime is still RISK-ON TRENDING.
My FOMC playbook:
WATCH: TNX movement post-announcement (primary driver)
WATCH: Powell's forward guidance language
WATCH: Whale activity spike post-decision
The -0.64 correlation is your edge. When TNX moves, BTC follows inverse.
Trade the correlation, not the headline.
#FOMCWatch #bitcoin #MacroAnalysis #FederalReserve #cryptotrading #BTC $BTC
