🚨 The biggest bull run may kick off in 2 days — here’s what I found (and what to watch) 🧵👇
Huge claim, short version: markets are pricing a Fed rate cut next week, and that’s why traders are calling a big crypto rally. But don’t treat this as guaranteed. Read these five things — they matter more than the hype.
What the Fed is likely to do — and how sure the market is
Traders put the odds of a December cut around the high 80s. Most forecasters expect a 25 bps cut at the Dec 9–10 meeting, not a massive 50 bps swing. That’s big, but it’s the size that matters for market reaction.
Liquidity is already flowing — and that helps risk assets
The Fed has been supplying short-term liquidity via repo operations and other tools. That kind of liquidity helps banks and fuels risk buying. If the Fed signals more easing, flows into crypto and stocks can accelerate.
Short-term price action: expect a violent bounce, not a calm rise
On the day of the cut, expect sharp spikes and big whipsaws. Crypto often moves quickly on headlines. A same-day bounce is likely if the Fed cuts and the statement looks dovish. Still, quick gains can reverse fast if the Fed’s language is cautious.
What turns a bounce into a sustained bull run
A single cut can spark a rally. But for a lasting bull market you need continued liquidity, large institutional inflows, and macro data that keeps the Fed easing. Watch for follow-up moves from big funds and ETF flows. No single Fed decision guarantees a months-long bull run.
Trade checklist — the few signals I’ll watch live
• Fed statement and Powell’s press conference.
• The dot plot and any hints about future cuts.
• Repo/operational liquidity notices from the Fed.
• Institutional ETF flows into crypto the 24–72 hours after the cut.
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