#bitcoin #crypto #fomc

🚨 Crypto market holds its breath ahead of Wednesday: this week’s Fed decision is NOT about another -25 bps🚨

The main question: will Powell admit that QT has gone too far and it’s time to quietly turn on “reserve management” (i.e. T-bill purchases of ~$40–60 billion/month)?

Why this matters for crypto:

• Markets are already pricing in an 87% chance of a rate cut (CME FedWatch)

• But everyone is waiting for a signal that the liquidity drain is over and the start of its replenishment

• Former New York Fed repo specialist Mark Cabana (now BofA) writes directly to clients: Powell is ready to announce monthly T-bill purchases of ~$45 billion

• This will be called “technical reserve management”, but in essence it is stealth QE: a transition from QT to slowly filling the “bathtub” with liquidity

James Thorne (Wellington-Altus): “Powell is forced to admit that the system has been stretched, reserves are already on the verge of “ample” and will now have to be regularly replenished. This is not just another executioner, this is a reversal of the Fed’s balance sheet.”

Milk Road Macro adds: QE returns in 2026, but weak: ~$20–60 billion/month and only T-bills, not coupons - “slow QE”, not the “rocket carrier” of 2020.

The impact on risk assets will be more modest, but the direction of liquidity is turning upwards.

Conclusion for crypto: If Powell says even a word about “ongoing bill purchases” or “reserve management operations” on Wednesday, this is a green signal that 2026 will be under positive liquidity flows.

The total crypto market is now $3.1 trillion.

⚠️Get ready: this week, the decision is not about the rate, but whether the Fed will start pouring water into the pool in which we all swim again.