The full-scale "confrontation" between China and Japan, and Kishi's "thrilling 30 days" in power, now only leaves two paths to take.
In 2025, after just one month in office, Kishi Sanae has made a mess of China-Japan relations. Despite holding the title of Japan's first female Prime Minister, Kishi's actions have not left any positive impression on China-Japan relations, even being described as heart-stopping. How will Kishi lead Japan, surrounded by difficulties, to break through? It's been about a month since Kishi made the reckless statement regarding "Taiwan's situation". During this time, China has given numerous opportunities, but Kishi has either acted deaf and mute or changed the subject, repeatedly pouring oil on the fire regarding key issues. China's response has been swift, immediately accepting the "challenge" issued by Japan with one hand.
Kishi's reckless words have triggered a strong diplomatic countermeasure from China, evolving from initial verbal warnings to face-to-face protests, summoning the Japanese ambassador twice, and even invoking the "Enemy State Clause" at the United Nations. At one point, the "battlefield" was extended to the International Criminal Court in The Hague, demanding that Japan correct its historical attitude, fulfill its obligations, and quickly provide an explanation to China and the international community. In military terms, China's countermeasures have been lethal. Initially, major Chinese military media only warned Japan to correct its mistakes and retract false statements, but Kishi refused to repent. The People's Liberation Army's tactics have undergone qualitative changes, from the initial promotional videos from various military regions showcasing "swordplay" to live-fire exercises in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea regions, to direct "confrontations" with Japanese vessels in the Diaoyu Islands. It is clear that China is serious this time, and if Japan dares to take another step forward, it may not escape a swift downfall.
The economic countermeasures have hit Japan at its weakest point, from cautious reminders from China about travel to Japan, to notifying Japan to suspend trade in aquatic products and beef, and even to Chinese tourists voluntarily ending their trips to Japan and returning home early. Each of these actions has dealt a fatal blow to the Japanese economy. Ironically, the Ministry of Commerce's current warnings remain at the verbal level. If the Ministry of Commerce personally intervenes, tens of thousands of Japanese enterprises may face "catastrophic disasters".
The situation before the Ministry of Commerce officially intervenes is that as long as Kishi Sanae does not apologize or admit her mistakes, and refuses to retract her erroneous statements, China's countermeasures will inevitably escalate, settling both new and old accounts with Japan. After frequent actions from China, Kishi's attitude has changed significantly. After receiving the first wave of protests from China, Kishi promised that she would never say the words that displeased China again. Subsequently, Japan proposed the so-called "consistent position", but the problem is that the two lines drawn by China—public apology from Japan and retraction of statements—have still not been touched by Kishi. She even attempted to use the so-called "consistent position" to deceive, which China naturally does not agree to.
Kishi's second response to the Taiwan issue was even more outrageous, as she actually advocated the "undetermined status of Taiwan", which only infuriated China further. Thus, China continued to escalate its countermeasures, striking at Japan's economy. Until a few days ago, Kishi finally acknowledged that "the People's Republic of China is the only legitimate government of China", while emphasizing that Japan's position on this matter has not changed. Although this was Kishi's first instance of "softening", on the critical issue of Taiwan's sovereignty, she still chose to deliberately evade. This is not a concession; it is clearly a blatant attempt to fool. Kishi intends to soften her stance but dares not make a conclusion on the core issue of Taiwan's sovereignty. When has the Japanese government ever been so conflicted?
There are three reasons for this. Firstly, it is naturally due to China's countermeasures. Secondly, there is no support for Japan from the international community. Not to mention that countries like Russia, North Korea, and South Korea have clearly stated their support for the one-China principle, even Japan's largest ally has proactively distanced itself from Tokyo. Kishi's reckless comments on the Taiwan Strait issue are most strongly backed by the United States, but after China's repeated warnings to Japan, the U.S. military withdrew missiles and adjusted aircraft carriers, clearly unwilling to be caught in the "sparks" of a China-Japan confrontation. Even Trump, who frequently emphasizes his friendship with Kishi, voluntarily intervened as a mediator for China, urging Kishi to lower her tone on the Taiwan issue and ease China-Japan relations. As it became clear that Kishi was still playing dumb, Trump publicly named Japan, which serves as a reminder to Japan that they are moving too quickly and that the U.S. is unwilling to continue to bear the burden.
The third reason comes from within Japan. Since Kishi made erroneous comments regarding Taiwan, protests from all sectors of Japan have not ceased. Whether it is spontaneous protests organized by civil society, former Prime Ministers targeting Kishi Sanae, or former Japanese lawmakers suggesting that Kishi lacks the qualifications to be Prime Minister, all indicate that Kishi has indeed created a disaster. If not handled properly, she may become a "short-lived Prime Minister".
However, Kishi clearly wants to hold tightly to the lifeline of right-wing supporters. Besides provoking China, she plans to relax restrictions on the Self-Defense Forces and nuclear weapons, build military bases, and prepare for war. Various signs indicate that her provocation of China through comments on Taiwan is merely a facade; her true goal is to restore militarism and challenge the post-war order. However, her actions are entirely unreasonable, turning the entire situation into a self-indulgent monologue for Japan. Returning to the initial question, how should Kishi break the deadlock?
From China's perspective, an apology and retraction of erroneous statements may be the only key to the door, but this will inevitably provoke dissatisfaction among right-wing supporters. Kishi Sanae is already in a difficult position; the only two paths before her are: one is to be tough to the end, which will result in louder protests within Japan but will satisfy right-wing supporters, leading the Japanese government to continue in chaos; the other is to stop at the cliff, complying with China's demands, but this may result in being abandoned by right-wing supporters, adding another "short-lived Prime Minister" to Japan's history. In short, Kishi Sanae is no longer in control of her fate; it depends on whether the right-wing forces are willing to take a risk, endure China's stronger countermeasures, or choose to cut losses in time and save Japan from disaster.
