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🇺🇸 NEW: Acting Chairman Pham has announced that the CFTC has launched a digital-assets pilot program allowing $BTC and $ETH  to be used as collateral in U.S. derivatives markets.

Bluechip

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JUST IN:
🇺🇸 CFTC launches crypto pilot program for tokenized collateral in derivatives markets.
$BTC

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BREAKING: The $18.9 Trillion Secret Wall Street Refuses to See Every macro strategist on Earth is asking the wrong question. "When will China print?" Never. Here is what three years of analysis reveals: China is not delaying monetization. China cannot monetize. The constraints are not economic. They are political. And this changes everything you think you know about the next decade. The numbers: Local government debt has reached ¥134 trillion. That is $18.9 trillion. Hidden across 4,000 financing vehicles. Exposed by a property collapse that erased the revenue stream meant to service it. Japan's central bank holds 46% of government bonds at 118% of GDP. China's central bank holds 11% at 35% of GDP. The gap will not close. Because it cannot close. Three walls prevent it: First: Quantitative easing is prohibited by Chinese law. Article 29 forbids primary market bond subscription. This is never discussed. Second: In 2015, one trillion dollars fled China in eighteen months. Beijing now threatens life imprisonment for capital flight through crypto. A government imposing life sentences to keep money inside its borders cannot afford loose monetary policy. Third: Debt is not a liability in China. It is a political tool. Provincial governments remain dependent on Beijing precisely because they are fiscally precarious. Monetization would sever the control mechanism holding the Party together. Japan printed to save its economy. China is refusing to print to save its political system. The implication: Deflation persists. Growth slows to 4%. The renminbi stays caged. Global disinflationary forces extend years beyond consensus. The world has been waiting for Beijing to capitulate. It will keep waiting. This is not Japanification. This is the Long Grind. And nobody priced it in. $BTC

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My Plan: I will short $BTC at 95-98K. Limits in place. SL 110K. Target $69,420.

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Bitcoin - Bear Flag, below Megaphone A bear flag is a continuation pattern, which means a move down would be the expected outcome. If such a move down did occur, $74k-77k would be the likeliest bottom, imo. I would not expect lower than that. ▶️ I would also expect a powerful rebound if such a level is reached. ◀️ Such a rally would be overdue as BTC would be extremely oversold at that point. I'm not saying I like what I see, but I think it's what we're looking at. I hope it doesn't play out like that and we get a continued move upward instead and that we're already in the middle of the relief rally. Anything is possible. No TA is absolute. Pouring some out for my homies. Good luck to us all. $BTC

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THE CONVERGENCE NO ONE SAW Wall Street is watching oil prices to predict Japan's collapse. They are measuring the wrong thermometer. The crisis has already started. Japan's 10-year bond yield just hit 1.95 percent. Highest since 2008. Five basis points from the 2 percent threshold every institutional stress model flags as critical. The 30-year yield: 3.44 percent. All-time record. The 40-year yield: 3.71 percent. All-time record. These are not warnings. These are arrivals. The Bank of Japan holds 28.6 trillion yen in unrealized losses on its bond portfolio. That is 225 percent of its entire capital base. The central bank is technically insolvent by any conventional measure. Japan imports 97 percent of its oil. Markets assume an oil spike above $80 must trigger the fiscal spiral. Institutional forecasts show oil heading to $52 to $60 in 2026. So everyone relaxed. They missed the architecture. The transmission mechanism that would amplify an oil shock is already operating through alternative channels. BOJ policy normalization. Global term premium expansion. Structural fiscal deterioration. Carry trade repatriation. Japan holds $1.13 trillion in U.S. Treasuries. The largest foreign position. When Japanese institutions repatriate capital, American bond markets feel it. The 20-year yield threshold for "serious repatriation" was 2 percent according to institutional strategists. It currently sits at 2.94 percent. The threshold broke. The flows have begun. Japan's debt: 260 percent of GDP. Each 1 percent yield rise: 2.5 percent of GDP in additional deficit. Debt servicing costs rising 8 percent annually. Faster than nominal GDP growth. The arithmetic has no equilibrium at current trajectories. Oil would be an accelerant. Not a trigger. The fire is already burning. Watch 10-year yields cross 2 percent. Watch the carry trade. Watch the Treasury market. The convergence trap has closed. $BTC

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JUST IN: 🇺🇸 CFTC launches crypto pilot program for tokenized collateral in derivatives markets. $BTC

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