Bitcoin traders are facing signals from new blockchains indicating that old coins are re-entering the market as investors prepare for the next decision on U.S. Federal Reserve policy. Analysts expect the Fed to cut interest rates at the December meeting, and the market has already priced in a 25 basis point move.
However, activity on the blockchain shows underlying uncertainty.
Inactive Bitcoin is returning to the market while awaiting new policies.
More than 2,400 BTC that are over ten years old were moved this week, unlocking long-stagnant supply worth over USD 215 million. Typically, these coins are untouched, and movements often precede distribution rather than accumulation.
Another signal shows that Coin Days Destroyed has alerted again. This metric highlights that old holders are moving Bitcoin, which is often a sell signal during price upticks.
Demand has absorbed this supply earlier in the year, but now analysts note that buyers are starting to retreat while experienced holders send coins to the market.
The return of old supply during periods of weak demand has a history of pressuring prices down. ETF inflows remain weak, and net flows indicate a reduced appetite for investment compared to past peaks, suggesting that upward adjustments may face challenges without liquidity returning.
Institutional analysts remain confident in the broader cycle. Bernstein argues that Bitcoin may break the four-year Halving rhythm and is entering an extended acceptance phase.
The company expects Bitcoin to reach USD 150,000 in 2026, with a peak in 2027 near USD 200,000.
However, the market direction now depends on the U.S. central bank. If policymakers lower interest rates as expected, liquidity could improve and bolster risk assets in early 2026.
The weakening dollar and lower capital costs may help support ETF demand and absorb selling from long-term holders.
Delays or minor reductions may create volatility, coupled with the re-emergence of supply. Bitcoin may face deeper price corrections before recovering.
Analysts warn that strong bids will be necessary to counter the activation of outdated supply.
Bitcoin is currently caught between changing network behavior and economic expectations. Investors will closely monitor signals from the FOMC to understand whether the next moves will strengthen the market or reveal further declines.
