NEAR is currently trading around the low–mid $1.7 zone, after a period of sideways-to-bearish action and elevated volatility through the last 30 days. Sentiment remains cautious, with the market still in “extreme fear” territory, but several short‑term indicators are starting to tilt toward a potential recovery setup rather than fresh capitulation.
From a technical perspective, most short‑term analyses are clustering around a key range between roughly $1.60–$2.00. The $1.58–$1.60 area is identified as strong support: if this zone holds, it supports the idea that recent selling has already priced in a lot of bearish news. On the upside, $2.00 is the critical psychological resistance, and multiple analyst desks frame it as the “gate” for any meaningful rebound. A sustained daily close above $2.00 would open the way toward the next resistance band around $2.35–$2.40, which several forecasts flag as a realistic year‑end target if momentum improves. In short: the structure is still fragile, but risk‑reward is starting to favor bulls as long as that $1.58 support is not lost.
Short‑term predictive models and research outlets are broadly aligned:
- One quantitative model projects NEAR fluctuating in a $1.77–$2.14 channel for the rest of 2025, with only modest upside from current prices and a still‑bearish overall sentiment profile.
- Other analyst reports are marginally more optimistic, calling for a move into the $2.35–$2.40 zone by year‑end if NEAR can reclaim and hold above $2.00 and if broader market conditions don’t deteriorate.
- Longer‑term, independent research remains structurally bullish on NEAR, with various 2025–2030 scenarios pointing to much higher bands if adoption, ecosystem growth, and the broader altcoin cycle all play in NEAR’s favor. These higher‑timeframe views, however, assume that current levels are part of a larger accumulation phase rather than the beginning of a deeper downtrend.
For Vietnamese individual investors, the implications are:
1. Market context and trend
- NEAR is in a late‑downtrend / early‑reaccumulation phase on the daily chart: lower highs are still visible, but selling pressure is weakening and indicators like RSI and MACD show early signs of a momentum shift.
- Volatility is still significant, so sharp intraday moves around news or BTC swings are likely. NEAR is tracking broader altcoin beta closely: what Bitcoin and macro liquidity do in the coming weeks will strongly influence whether NEAR’s bounce attempts succeed.
- On higher timeframes (weekly), NEAR is trading well below its prior cycle highs, but still respects a broader multi‑year support zone that keeps the long‑term bull case technically intact.
2. Key levels to watch
- Support:
- $1.58 (critical structural support; loss of this level would increase risk of a slide toward prior lows in the $1.45–$1.50 region).
- Secondary demand in the mid‑$1.60s, where buyers have previously stepped in.
- Resistance:
- $2.00 (psychological and technical barrier; reclaiming and holding above this level is the first confirmation of a trend shift).
- $2.35–$2.40 (initial upside target zone for many short‑term forecasts).
- $2.40–$2.41 (next resistance layer; a clean break here would strengthen the case for an extended recovery rally).
3. Action suggestions (not financial advice, but strategic frameworks)
For short‑term traders (swing / position):
- Consider focusing on the $1.60–$2.00 range:
- Aggressive traders may look for entries near support ($1.60–$1.65) with tight stop‑losses slightly below $1.58, targeting the $1.90–$2.35 area.
- More conservative traders can wait for a confirmed daily close above $2.00 with increased volume before entering, targeting $2.35–$2.40 and managing risk with a stop below $1.90–$1.95.
- Avoid over‑leveraging. NEAR’s 17–20% monthly volatility means that even spot positions can experience strong drawdowns; leverage magnifies risk, especially if BTC turns lower.
- Continuously monitor:
- RSI behavior (recovery above ~45–50 supports the bullish scenario).
- MACD crossovers and histogram strength (continued positive readings support trend reversal).
- Volume expansion on green days (a necessary confirmation that bigger players are stepping in).
For medium‑ to long‑term investors (6–24 months):
- If you believe in NEAR’s fundamentals (modular architecture, dev ecosystem, partnerships), current levels in the low‑$1s may represent an accumulation zone, but capital should be deployed gradually, not all at once.
- A reasonable approach for Vietnamese retail investors is:
- Use dollar‑cost averaging (DCA) over several weeks or months, increasing allocation slightly on dips closer to the $1.60 zone, reducing buys if price spikes quickly toward or above $2.40.
- Define a maximum portfolio allocation to NEAR (for example, 3–10% depending on your risk appetite) and avoid exceeding it, even if price looks “cheap.”
- Have clear invalidation levels: if NEAR decisively loses $1.58 and trades below that level for an extended period without strong recovery, reassess the thesis. That would indicate that sellers still control the market and that lower price ranges are possible before any new cycle.
For risk management (especially important in Vietnam’s retail environment):
- Always translate positions into VND terms when planning: think in total capital at risk, not just in token quantity.
- Set pre‑defined stop‑loss and take‑profit zones instead of reacting emotionally to volatility.
- Be cautious with local on‑ramp/off‑ramp services, spreads, and fees on Vietnamese exchanges or P2P platforms; these costs can significantly reduce real returns, especially on short‑term trades.
- Remember regulatory uncertainty: avoid over‑concentration in a single altcoin and maintain some liquidity (USDT/USDC or fiat) for flexibility.
4. Scenarios to prepare for
- Bullish continuation scenario
- BTC and majors stabilize or trend higher; NEAR holds above $1.60 and breaks $2.00 on strong volume.
- Price extends toward $2.35–$2.40, then potentially tests higher resistances if the broader altcoin market enters a new leg up.
- Strategy: let winners run with trailing stops, take partial profit into strength around each resistance band while keeping a core position for a possible longer‑term cycle.
- Range‑bound / choppy scenario
- NEAR continues oscillating between roughly $1.60 and $2.00, with false breakouts and rapid reversals.
- Strategy: this environment favors disciplined traders using clear levels and tight risk, but is dangerous for inexperienced investors. Long‑term investors can continue DCA but must accept short‑term noise.
- Bearish breakdown scenario
- NEAR loses $1.58 with conviction, volume increases on red candles, and BTC or macro conditions worsen.
- Price could revisit or break below prior lows in the mid‑$1s.
- Strategy: respect your stop‑losses. Either wait patiently in stablecoins or only re‑enter when there are clear signs of capitulation and a new base forming (sideways consolidation, volume climax, improving on‑chain/flow metrics).
For Vietnamese individual investors, the core message is: NEAR is in a technically fragile but potentially attractive zone where downside is defined by a clear support level, while upside depends on reclaiming $2.00 and broader market risk appetite. Align any action plan with your own risk tolerance, investment horizon, and understanding of NEAR’s long‑term fundamentals rather than relying solely on short‑term price predictions.
