【December 8 - December 12 Macro Highlights】**

Core: Federal Reserve interest rate decision, December dot plot, will it push Powell towards dovish rate cut comments?

1. Confirmed Data

- December 11 (Beijing time 03:00) Federal Reserve announces interest rate; CME rate cut probability 86%, already locked in

2. Will further rate cuts continue?

① December Dot Plot:

- How much rate cut space remains after neutral rate enters 3.50%—3.75%;

- 2026 path — number of times, magnitude, implied latest assessment of economy, employment, inflation

② Powell's press conference:

- Hawkish rate cut: raising the bar for further cuts → negative for risk assets;

- Neutral rate cut: avoiding continued easing while also avoiding tightening, adjusting view points in real-time;

- Dovish rate cut: confirming economic slowdown, employment risks, controlled inflation → reinforcing easing expectations

3. Conclusion

This week serves as a watershed for 2026 interest rate expectations: dot plot sets the space, Powell sets the pace; additional noise comes from when Trump nominates a new chairman, if Hassett intervenes “in the shadows” early, it may disturb market interpretations.