On Monday, the cryptocurrency market experienced a clearing trend driven by no news: daytime prices peaked at $92,000, then sharply dropped to around $89,000 in the evening, followed by fluctuations around the $90,000 mark, consistent with the market's cautious speculative characteristics before major events. The current market is focused on two key events - this week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision and next week's Bank of Japan interest rate decision, with the short-term oscillation pattern expected to continue.
Today's market focus will be on the speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda at 17:00: he will participate in a live Q&A session at a roundtable hosted by the Financial Times (not reading from a script), and investors will gauge the direction of next week's interest rate decisions based on the details of his remarks. The market currently expects Ueda to possibly make hawkish statements, likely reiterating that Japanese inflation and wage growth are "in line with expectations," and explicitly mentioning that "the excessively weak yen is raising import costs," paving the way for a rate hike in December; current market pricing shows that the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike in December has reached about 80%.
The stock market and cryptocurrencies are highly sensitive to the direction of the Bank of Japan, with the core logic being the risk of unwinding in interest rate differential trades: in the past, investors generally borrowed the low-interest-rate yen to invest in technology stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets; if yen interest rates rise along with a strengthening exchange rate, the increase in borrowing costs will force investors to sell high-risk assets to repay debts, potentially triggering short-term selling pressure in the cryptocurrency and stock markets. Conversely, if Ueda hints at not raising interest rates in December, the liquidity of the cheap yen will continue to support risk assets, and cryptocurrencies are expected to see a rebound momentum.