The 95% Certain Fed Cut Is The Ultimate BTC Trap
The market has fully priced in the December FOMC decision. Consensus probability for a 25 bps rate cut is now sitting at a staggering 95%, fueled by cooling macro data like softer PCE inflation. $BTC has already front-run this news, surging past $90,000 in anticipation of looser monetary conditions.
But traders must remember the history books. This is the third rate cut of 2024, and $BTC has corrected after six of the seven prior FOMC meetings this year, averaging a painful 15% drop. The cut is baked in. The real volatility trigger is not the rate decision itself, but the forward guidance on 2026 monetary policy. If the Fed signals any hawkish pause or caution, prepare for a major liquidation event. We are watching $ETH reaction closely as well.
This is not financial advice.
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