$FIL
🧭☕️Latest News Context 🔔
The broader crypto market is rallying on Fed liquidity injection (QT ended Dec 1, $13.5B injected) and 89% odds of December rate cuts. Bitcoin surged 11.81% in 48 hours, and institutional adoption accelerated (BlackRock, Vanguard, Schwab). However, FIL has decoupled negatively—it's down 48% while BTC rallied, suggesting sector-specific weakness or profit-taking in storage tokens.
🧭☕️Current Setup: Cautious Bounce Play (Not Conviction Long)
♨️Scenario 1: Mean Reversion Trade (Short-term)
☕️Entry: $1.45–$1.48 (near daily support $1.413)
☕️Target: $1.55–$1.60 (daily resistance, 20-day EMA)
Stop: Below $1.41
Rationale: RSI oversold, bid-side accumulation, and macro tailwinds (Fed cuts) could spark a relief bounce.
🧭🌋Scenario 2: Avoid Aggressive Longs (Medium-term)
Daily EMA alignment (5 < 10 < 20 < 120) is broken; price is below all key moving averages.
MACD remains negative; no bullish crossover yet.
Recommendation: Wait for price to reclaim $1.605 (20-day EMA) with volume confirmation before committing capital.
