Central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries for the first time since 1996.
Read that satisfactorily.
The institutions that print money are fleeing their own paper.
Gold has risen sixty percent this year. The thirty year Treasury has fallen. This correlation breakdown has not occurred since the collapse of Bretton Woods.
The numbers they do not want you to see:
Federal debt has reached thirty eight point four trillion dollars. Interest expense now exceeds nine hundred seventy billion annually. This is larger than the entire defense budget. The government borrows to pay interest on previous borrowing. The spiral is now automatic.
The October jobs report does not exist. The October inflation data does not exist. Forty three days of government shutdown erased them permanently. The Federal Reserve is making policy blind.
Wall Street is selling you a mirage. Seven companies constitute thirty five percent of the S&P 500. The valuation multiple has reached the ninety ninth percentile of all history. The only comparable moments: 1929 and 2000.
Commercial real estate delinquencies have exceeded the 2008 peak. Nine hundred fifty seven billion in loans mature this year. Fifty nine major banks hold exposure exceeding three hundred percent of their equity.
This is not a market. It is a confidence game approaching its terminal phase.
The trust that built the deepest capital market in human history is migrating. Central banks purchased six hundred thirty four tonnes of gold this year while reducing Treasury holdings.
When the guardians of the system begin treating their own creation as the risk, the transition has already begun.
