Studio of maximum cycles, recurring patterns, and projections 2025

In the last ten years, Ethereum has been the protagonist of one of the most significant structural growths in the crypto market. Like Bitcoin, ETH also shows a strong cyclical nature, with movements that tend to repeat over time: a strong rise, followed by a deep crash, then a long accumulation phase and a new expansion cycle.

The image clearly shows the monthly evolution of the ETH/USDC price from 2015 to 2025, highlighting the main Cycle Tops, their subsequent crashes, and long-term growth channels.

🔵 2016 – First Mini Expansion Cycle

2016 represents one of the first key moments for Ethereum, with a strong price increase followed by a collapse of over -91%.

Characteristics:

Strong initial speculative phase

First test of the cyclical structure of ETH

Very deep retracement, typical of young assets

🔵 2017 – The First Major Mass Cycle

The 2017 cycle coincides with the explosion of ICOs and a period of huge euphoria in the crypto sector.

Key data:

Cycle Top 2017

Collapse of about -93%

Start of the first long accumulation period

This cycle has been essential in defining the long-term structure of Ethereum.

🔵 2020 – The DeFi Cycle

The 2020 cycle peak coincides with the explosion of:

DeFi

staking on ETH2

crypto institutional adoption

Characteristics:

Strong rally

Subsequent collapse very deep (about -88%) but less than previous cycles

Beginning of a new accumulation phase that led to the 2021 boom

🔵 2023 – The Post-merge Cycle

The 2023 cycle is the first after the Merge, the transition of Ethereum to Proof of Stake.

Key data:

New cyclical high

Collapse of about -83%

Less violent decline than previous cycles → sign of a more mature market

🔴 2025 – The Expected Cycle

2025 represents the hypothesized cyclical peak in the image, following the same temporal logic of previous cycles.

Possible scenarios:

ETH reaches a new all-time high between late 2024 and mid 2025

Subsequent drawdown estimated between -75% and -85%

Return to the lower part of the logarithmic channel, as has already happened in all previous cycles. This cycle could be fueled by:

#ETF #ETH approved staking increase, reduction of circulating supply (“ultrasound money”) growth Layer 2.