🚀💸Bitcoin Wobbles Into FOMC Week With a Major Warning🚀💸
🔥$BTC is heading into FOMC week in an unusually vulnerable state. Mounting miner pressure, weakening liquidity, and shifting macro forces are pushing the market toward a critical inflection point.🔥🔥
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🔹 The FOMC Trap
💰Markets are pricing in an 87.2% probability that the Fed will cut rates to 3.50%–3.75%.
If history repeats — like the previous two rate cuts — traders should be cautious of a familiar pattern:💰
Small pre-FOMC pump → short bounce → deeper correction afterward.
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🔸 Liquidity & Demand Weakening
Exchange BTC reserves have slid from 2.95M (August) to 2.76M, signaling shrinking spot demand.
A surprising shift: BTC is now more correlated with RBI liquidity than the Fed — suggesting global liquidity is driving price more than U.S. policy alone.
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🔹 Capitulation Signals Flashing
Miner Stress: The Hash Ribbon has flipped bearish, indicating falling miner revenue and smaller miners shutting down.
Panic Selling: STH-NUPL plunged to -0.15, confirming that short-term holders are capitulating and locking in losses.
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Bigger Picture: Risk-On Trigger Ahead?
Despite short-term risk, more than $10 trillion sits in money market funds. Falling interest rates could spark a major risk-on rotation once conditions stabilize.
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The Question:
Will the upcoming rate cut become a “sell the news” event, or will it ignite the next leg of the Bitcoin bull run?
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