$BTC is entering FOMC week in an unusually fragile state. A mix of miner pressure, weakening liquidity, and new macroeconomic variables has pushed BTC into a critical inflection zone.
🔹 The FOMC Trap for $BTC
Markets are pricing in an 87.2% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates to 3.50%–3.75%.
In the last two rate cuts, $BTC followed a similar pattern:
A small pre-FOMC rise
A quick short-term bounce
A sharp post-news decline
If history repeats, BTC traders should stay cautious.
🔸 Liquidity & Demand Impacting BTC
Exchange reserves have dropped from 2.95M BTC (August) to 2.76M BTC, showing weakening spot demand.
Another key shift: Bitcoin (BTC) is now strongly correlated with RBI liquidity, indicating BTC is reacting to global liquidity, not just the Fed.
🔹 Capitulation Signals for Bitcoin (BTC)
Miner Stress
The Hash Ribbon indicator for Bitcoin miners has turned bearish, signaling declining miner revenue and early miner shutdowns.
Panic Selling
The STH-NUPL index for BTC short-term holders has fallen to –0.15, confirming panic selling and realized losses.
Short-Term Risk vs. Long-Term Potential
Short-term risks for Bitcoin (BTC) are clear.
However, with $10 trillion sitting in money market funds, falling interest rates could eventually drive capital back into BTC and other crypto assets.
Final Question
💬 Will this rate cut trigger a “sell the news” moment for Bitcoin (BTC), or will it ignite the next big BTC bull run?
This article is for information only and not financial advice. 
