【December 9th Cryptocurrency Market News and Data Analysis】

1. There have been 7 meetings this year for #fomc , with Bitcoin only rising once;

2. Matrixport: The cryptocurrency market is unlikely to see sustainable growth as retail participation weakens;

3. The U.S. spot #BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $60.51 million yesterday, while the spot #ETH #ETF had a net inflow of $35.49 million yesterday;

4. Santiment: The total net outflow of CEX Bitcoin over the past year has reached 403,200 coins.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to be released this week can be referenced; the Fed has held seven interest rate decisions this year, with only one instance in early May showing an approximate 15% increase in Bitcoin, while the other six instances saw a decline. Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $94,000, and although trading volume has rebounded, the cumulative trading volume difference (CVD) and open interest have both shown a downward trend, indicating that selling pressure is still accumulating. The options market's hedging demand is rising, while ETF capital outflows show that buying interest remains weak, overall presenting early signs of recovery but sentiment remains cautious.

At the same time, retail participation remains low. The previously active Korean market, where retail trading volume reached tens of billions of dollars in a single day, has now fallen to around $1 billion, with limited short-term capital return. New or expanding trading platforms are struggling to achieve sustained trading volume growth, and some planned listing projects have also faced delays. Even if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates subsequently, without widespread retail participation, the market is unlikely to form a truly sustainable upward momentum. Trading volume and sentiment are interdependent and both are essential.