$ETH $BTC $ZEC 【Breaking】A 7.6 magnitude earthquake in Japan surprisingly shook the global central bank landscape!

Just as the world closely watches the Federal Reserve, a sudden strong earthquake sweeps across Japan. The market quickly reacts: the yen's interest rate hike plan is likely to be "delayed". The dollar against the yen skyrockets to 155.97, causing a sudden shift in global capital flows.

But this is just the prelude to the storm. The real main event is the Federal Reserve decision to be announced in a few hours—a "hawkish rate cut" that has already been priced in by the market, but hides a "hawkish trap".

Data doesn’t lie, but human hearts can change:

📉 The rate cut is a done deal, but enthusiasm has cooled: the market bets on a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this week at 87.4%, but the three major U.S. stock indices have all retreated, with capital withdrawing in advance.

🗣 The key is not "what to do", but "how to say it": everyone is waiting for Powell to speak. Will the policy statement emphasize stubborn inflation? Will the dot plot suggest "this is it"? Any hawkish wording could turn this rate cut into a market's "buy the rumor, sell the fact" situation.

🇯🇵 The black swan disrupts the global layout: Japan's strong earthquake is likely to force the Bank of Japan to abandon the upcoming interest rate hike and turn to disaster relief. The policy paths of the two major global currencies—the dollar and the yen—face significant changes.

A complex game of intertwining natural disasters and human strategies is unfolding:

✔ Internal divisions at the Federal Reserve: there may be up to four dissenting votes, and board members may even call for a more aggressive rate cut of 50 basis points. Confusing signals will be the source of volatility.

✔ The specter of "stagflation" looms: economic slowdown and inflation pressures coexist, making every step the Federal Reserve takes precarious, potentially forcing them to send contradictory signals.

✔ The silent consensus among global central banks: this week, central banks in Australia, Brazil, and several other countries are expected to collectively "stay put", highlighting that in the face of immense uncertainty, global policymakers have entered a state of heightened vigilance.

When the "certainty" of rate cuts meets the "uncertainty" of guidance, and when natural disasters intrude into the financial battlefield, the market arrives at a typical crossroads of "buy the rumor, sell the fact".

The rate cut shoe is about to drop, but can you guess whether the market will celebrate due to "easing" or panic and exit due to "hawkish warnings"?