This morning, when I opened the market software, that dense green was dazzling to the eyes. The community instantly exploded: 'Digital assets are going to crash' 'This time it's really going to zero' Looking at these familiar arguments, I couldn't help but shake my head and smile. After all, 30 days ago, they were still shouting 'Charge, the next high point is right in front of us.'
After 8 years of crawling in this market, I have long understood: the traders who can truly survive are not those who rely on luck to guess the ups and downs, but those who discern the truth through patterns. Today, I won't talk about market predictions, but will share with you the 6 iron rules I have learned from my missteps and tuition fees, each hiding a code to avoid deep pits.
One, rapid rises and slow falls are not a peak; it’s the big players "screening people."
When I first entered the industry, the silliest mistake I made was panicking at the sight of a rise. I remember once when a mainstream coin surged 15% in a day, I got scared and quickly liquidated my position, only to see it rise slowly for the next five days, watching my profits slip away. Later, I realized: if there’s a slow pullback after a rapid rise, and the trading volume hasn’t collapsed, this is not a peak but rather a washout by the big players — scaring off the unstable retail investors to lighten the load and continue. What we should really be wary of is that kind of "rapid drop after a volume surge"; one second you’re shouting "breaking historical highs," and the next second it directly breaks through the support level — this is the trap that keeps you stuck at the peak.
Two, don’t buy the dip during a rapid drop and slow rebound; that’s "the last bait."
Last year, there was a market flash crash of 20%; I looked at the long lower shadow on the candlestick chart, got overexcited, and went all in to buy the dip, thinking to myself, "It’s dropped this much, how much lower can it go?" What happened next? The next three months were slow rebounds; each rebound felt like "it’s about to warm up," but it just wouldn’t reach the breakeven point, and in the end, I couldn’t hold on and had to cut my losses. Later, upon reviewing, I realized that this slow rebound after a sharp drop was essentially the big players offloading in batches, using a small amount of capital to prop up the price and attract retail investors to take over; once their inventory is nearly out, it’s time for a new round of significant drops. Remember: in a downtrend, "buying the dip" is more dangerous than "chasing highs."
Three, high volume at high levels is not scary; lack of volume is the "harbinger of a storm."
Many people are afraid when they see the price of coins skyrocketing, especially when the trading volume increases, always feeling like "it’s going to crash." But I want to say, high-volume at high levels is really not scary — as long as the volume is sustained, it indicates that market sentiment is still there, and funds are still entering the market; who knows, there might be another surge. The real danger is "high-volume consolidation," like the calm before a storm; the candlestick looks smooth, but the trading volume decreases day by day, which means the buying power has exhausted, and the next moment could be a waterfall decline. I've seen this kind of market too many times; every time it’s "volume-less consolidation" followed by a sudden crash.
Four, don’t get excited about volume at the bottom; "sustained volume" is the real signal.
"Buying the dip at the halfway point" is a common problem among retail investors, and I have stumbled into this pitfall too. I once saw a certain coin put out a huge bullish candle at the bottom, thinking "funds are entering," I immediately went all in, only for it to drop another 30% afterward. It turned out that was just the big players putting out "bait volume" — using a sum of money to pull up a big candle to attract retail investors while secretly offloading their positions. What is the true bottom signal? It’s "consolidation with decreasing volume followed by several days of increasing volume." First, there is a period of consolidation with decreasing volume to wash out the shaky hands, then steadily increasing volume for 3-5 days with a slow price increase, which indicates that funds are truly entering to build positions; this kind of signal can increase the success rate by at least 70%.
Five, don’t fixate on candlesticks; volume is the "true voice of the market."
I’ve seen too many people spend all day drawing trend lines and searching for support and resistance levels on the candlesticks, yet ignore the most critical factor: trading volume. In fact, candlesticks can be misleading, but volume does not lie. When the price rises and the volume increases, it indicates a genuine rise, and sentiment is hot; when the price rises but the volume decreases, that’s a "false rise," which could correct at any moment. When the price drops and the volume increases, it indicates panic selling, and it might drop further; when the price drops and the volume decreases, it indicates that selling pressure is nearly exhausted, and it’s not far from the bottom. Volume is the market's "funds thermometer," more useful than any technical indicator.
Six, the "three no's" mindset is the highest realm of trading
After spending a long time in this market, I found that no matter how good the skills are, if the mentality is not right, you won't make money. I summarized the "three no's" mindset: no obsession, go to cash when needed, don’t think "not trading means losing," being in cash is also a strategy; no greed, don’t chase highs regardless of how much it continues to rise, even if there's profit ahead, don’t try to grab the last penny; no fear, act decisively when it’s time, as long as the signal appears, execute without hesitation, don’t miss opportunities out of fear of a downturn. This is not a Zen mindset; it’s the composure I developed after stumbling countless times.
There are always opportunities in the crypto circle; what’s lacking is the composure to control one’s hands. A person blindly wandering is like walking in a maze blindfolded, making it easy to step into pitfalls; but walking with someone knowledgeable can prevent detours and help see the rhythm clearly.
I share market reviews and trading strategies in the community every day, making sure to secure the money that should be earned and avoiding the traps that shouldn't be stepped into. If you also don't want to gamble on luck for the market and want to make steady profits over the long term, follow me.
