The real risk lies in Powell's speech❗️❗️❗️
Don't think that once interest rates are lowered, everything will be fine. The real risk lies in Powell's speech after the rate cut! This cut is forced by the situation, not Powell's original intention. The rate cut at 3 AM on Thursday, followed by Powell's speech at 3:30, I expect he will release extremely hawkish signals to preemptively signal 'no further rate cuts in the future.' He can be ruthless in scaring the market.
After the rate cut, the interest rate is at 3.5%, in the 'neutral range', but inflation is still at 3%, far exceeding the 2% target, and economic data is also good; the Federal Reserve has no reason to continue lowering rates, which is consistent with Powell's usual attitude.
I judge that after the rate cut next week, the market may take a sharp turn downwards, initiating a deep correction. My strategy is to establish 2 - 5 times long-term short positions on highs, while those seeking stability can wait for next year's crash to buy the dip. In the second half of next year, we may see significant easing, starting a 3 - 5 year upward cycle. Pay attention to Musen, leading you to avoid pitfalls and seize market opportunities!
