Is the Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Dead? Grayscale Points to Institutional Domination

Grayscale posits that the famed Bitcoin market structure, traditionally dictated by the quadrennial halving event, is losing its predictive power. They argue that as more Bitcoin enters circulation, the relative supply shock from each halving diminishes, meaning the market no longer strictly adheres to the predictable “four-year cycle”.

According to their analysis, the contemporary Bitcoin market is primarily driven by institutional capital, a significant shift from the retail speculation that dominated previous cycles (e.g., 2013 and 2017). Grayscale highlights that the recent rally was more controlled, differing from the explosive, parabolic moves of the past. The subsequent 30% correction, they suggest, resembles a typical bull market consolidation rather than a full cycle top. Market movements are increasingly shaped by macro factors, including interest rate expectations, bipartisan regulatory progress in the U.S., and the ongoing integration of Bitcoin into traditional institutional portfolios.$BTC