Just nailed down the 1-hour market for ETH, combining on-chain + news to analyze this wave of opportunity —— Currently, ETH is priced at 3115.72, the hourly BOLL band has narrowed to the extreme, MA7 and MA30 are fully merged, which is a typical "calm period before a trend change"; looking at the KDJ indicator, the K line has turned upwards from below 50 crossing the D line, and the J value just touched 66 without entering the overbought zone, short-term rebound momentum has been fully prepared.
On-chain data is more severe: In the past 24 hours, the ETH balance on exchanges dropped sharply by 12,000 (Glassnode real-time data). Addresses holding ≥1000 ETH have increased their holdings by over 8,000 in the last 3 days, with chips concentrating from retail investors to major players. At the same time, the amount of ETH2.0 staked increased by 23,000 in a single day, with the staking rate breaking through 28.5%. The confidence of long-term funds is already recorded on-chain.
On the news front, the Federal Reserve's minutes released signals that 'the interest rate cut cycle may begin in Q1 2026', causing the US dollar index to drop 0.8% in the short term, and the liquidity window for risk assets is fully opened; in addition, after the Ethereum Cancun upgrade, the Layer2 ecosystem's TVL increased by 12% week-on-week, and the liquidity aggregation function of Uniswap V4 has been implemented, with ETH's on-chain activity continuing to warm up.
Operational rhythm: Hourly line pullback in the 3100-3105 range for direct low absorption, stop loss at 3080 (give up if broken), first target at 3150 (BOLL upper resistance), and after stabilizing, rush directly to the previous high of 3179.
This is the resonance node of 'Oscillation Tail End + Capital Rush'. Don't wait until it breaks through to chase - follow me, and I will synchronize the real-time turning point signals for ETH in the comments section in the next 24 hours. This wave of profit-taking will only be for my followers!
