$BTC , $ETH , $ZEC
🚨 The global market is shaken by two events: Japan's 7.6 magnitude earthquake and the upcoming 'hawkish rate cut' earthquake from the Federal Reserve!
According to foreign media reports, although the strong earthquake in Japan once triggered a tsunami warning and market risk-averse sentiment, the yen showed resilience in the Asian market, maintaining a stable exchange rate. However, the real shock comes from the policy level: the market is betting that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points this week exceeds 87%. But this rate cut may be quite unusual—it is likely to be a 'hawkish rate cut,' meaning that while cutting rates, the Fed will use statements and dot plots to suppress market expectations of continued easing next year.
💰 Why is this rate cut potentially 'toxic'?
Because there is significant division within the Federal Reserve. Analysts point out that this meeting may be one of the 'most controversial in recent years,' with a high probability of multiple dissenting votes. More critically, Chairman Powell's term is coming to an end, and his influence over policy is diminishing, while the market is more focused on the potential policy shift that the next popular candidate, Hassett, might bring. A tug-of-war between 'dovish' actions and 'hawkish' rhetoric is about to unfold.
🌍 The global market has already entered risk-averse mode.
In the face of this uncertainty, the U.S. stock market has already pulled back across the board. Meanwhile, comments from European Central Bank officials suggest that their next step may even be a rate hike, which diverges from the path of the Federal Reserve. The cautious pace of global central banks during this 'super week' has heightened market sensitivity.
🚨 For the cryptocurrency market, the eye of the storm is after the resolution.
The script of 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' may replay. After the rate cut is implemented, every word from Powell will be magnified and interpreted, and any hints regarding 'inflation concerns' or 'future pauses' could trigger volatility. In this macro-driven market, in addition to mainstream coins, early ecosystem projects with strong community consensus and narrative ability (such as the recently popular p u p p i e s concept) often serve as a 'thermometer' for market risk appetite.
⚠️ The market is volatile; investment requires rationality.
👉 Friends, do you think this time the Federal Reserve will 'feed sugar' or 'slap'? Can BTC withstand the impact of the 'hawkish rate cut'?
