Bitcoin's recent price development shows persistent weakness as the asset struggles to find direction amid subdued macroeconomic signals. This presents a bullish-neutral forecast.
The lack of sentiment has kept BTC moving downward for several days, but the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday could change the mood. Acting as a catalyst depends heavily on the behavior of short-term holders.
Bitcoin holders may pose a challenge.
The STH and LTH supply ratio recently increased from 18.3% to 18.5%, surpassing the upper limit of 17.6%. This indicates a growing share of short-term holders in Bitcoin's supply mix.
Their presence increases speculative activity, which can enhance liquidity but also create sharper intraday fluctuations. The change highlights markets that are susceptible to volatility if conditions shift rapidly.
A higher ratio also indicates that STHs influence Bitcoin's immediate flow more. Their tendency to sell at profit has historically constrained recoveries. If the FOMC's decision triggers a price rally, STH behavior will determine whether the sentiment holds or fades.
Want more token information? Subscribe to Chief Editor Harsh Notariyan's Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
Bitcoin's profit percentage of the supply has risen from 66.5% to 67.3%, a modest increase of 1.2%. While the upward movement is positive, the metric is far from the high threshold of 98.4% typically seen in strong bull phases. This indicates that a significant portion of the supply is still at a loss, reflecting a cautious environment rather than euphoric strength.
Such muted profitability aligns with early-stage accumulation behavior. Investors seem selective and patient, waiting for stronger macroeconomic cues before committing. If the FOMC's cut increases risk appetite, this profitability gap leaves room for expansion and stronger follow-through.
The price of Bitcoin is $90,399 at the time of writing, just below a downtrend that has lasted for about a month and a half. BTC is attempting to turn $90,400 into a support level, which would be the first step in reversing the trend.
If macro conditions support and rate cuts stimulate broader market optimism, BTC could rebound strongly. A clear rise from $90,400 could lead to a retest of $95,000, and breaking that resistance would open a clear path towards the long-awaited $100,000 level, validating Bitcoin's price forecast.
However, if short-term holders sell during moments of strength, Bitcoin may struggle to maintain upward pressure. A rejection of $95,000 or an inability to break the downtrend could send BTC back towards $86,822, nullifying the bullish scenario.
