Brothers, I am your old friend, the sniper in the crypto circle. Just now, I was watching the ETH 1-hour candlestick chart, and I felt a chill down my spine—this is not an ordinary fluctuation, but the prelude to a life-and-death battle between bulls and bears! Look at the chart: the ETH/USDT perpetual contract closed around $3128, with a drop of only 0.52% and a fluctuation of less than 1%, but the Bollinger Bands (BOLL) are rapidly tightening, with the middle band at 3128.6 almost overlapping with the price, while the upper band is at 3163 and the lower band at 3094 forming a deadly squeeze. Such extremely narrow fluctuations often signal that a change is imminent, just like a spring compressed to its limit—either it soars or crashes bloodily!
More critically, the indicators are hiding secrets. EMA(7) is 3126.62, EMA(30) is 3110.54, the short-term moving average slightly crosses above the long-term line, but the MACD remains below the zero axis, with DIF(10.6) and DEA(12.83) forming a death cross, and the histogram at -4.45 shows that bearish momentum is dominating. This is not a contradiction—this is a typical bull-bear strangulation! Prices are repeatedly rubbing within the range of 3118-3146, with the main force cleaning out retail positions, while the EMA and MA moving averages intertwine, indicating that a trend choice is imminent.
On-chain data further supports my judgment. I have detected a surge in large transfers on the Ethereum chain in the past 24 hours, with whale addresses transferring over 10,000 ETH from exchanges to cold wallets, and exchange balances have dropped to a three-month low. What does this mean? Smart money is quietly accumulating; they are taking advantage of market panic to buy low. Once they have enough chips, combined with favorable news, the upward momentum will be unstoppable! Meanwhile, the open interest in perpetual contracts is steadily rising, but the funding rate is neutral, indicating that both bulls and bears are stockpiling ammunition, just waiting for a trigger.
The news front is similarly turbulent. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are rising, coupled with the countdown to Ethereum's Cancun upgrade, and the Layer 2 ecosystem is about to explode, providing fundamental support for ETH. However, short-term regulatory noise and profit-taking pressure cannot be underestimated—the tug-of-war between bulls and bears has become intense. My insider channels reveal that several institutions are secretly building positions, targeting this technical support zone.
My prediction: ETH has strong support at the lower Bollinger Band at 3094. As long as it does not fall below this level, it is a 'golden pit.' Once it breaks through the upper band at 3163 with volume, it will directly challenge the $3200 mark, triggering a new wave of bullish momentum. However, if it unexpectedly loses the 3094 level, it may test 3050 for support. What we need to do now is not gamble, but closely monitor my signals—I will provide real-time updates on adding positions and stop-loss points in the channel.
