🔥【马斯克小🌸奶🌸狗 p u p p i e s 🔥 Warning! December rate cuts may be a 'hawkish trap'】
Don't just focus on the 25BP rate cut; the real risk may lie ahead. Many institutions on Wall Street have already warned: this rate cut appears dovish, but it could actually be the 'beginning of tightening'.
Here are the key points👇
1️⃣ One-time rate cut risk: If inflation doesn't come down and economic data remains strong, the Federal Reserve may only cut once and then not act again for a year and a half—markets might have preemptively celebrated, leaving them to tough it out afterwards.
2️⃣ Surge in policy uncertainty: Powell's position is unstable, and the stance of the new chair is unknown. The pace of policy changes may experience gaps, with markets navigating in the dark again.
3️⃣ Internal opinions divided: The dot plot is likely to show huge differences, indicating that future paths are even less clear. A rate cut no longer represents easing, but rather 'uncertainty in direction'.
📉 The pressure on the market is twofold:
Strong economy → Inflation rebound → Rate cut pause
Weak economy → Concerns of recession → Flight to safety
Summary: The benefits of a rate cut have already been priced in; the real test is the 'true intent of policy' after the rate cut. This week is not a celebration, but rather a shift into a tougher market mode. Proceed with caution.
