Standard Chartered has lowered its long-term Bitcoin (BTC) price forecasts and warned that a key pillar of recent demand, corporate Bitcoin purchases, is likely over.
The bank now believes that future gains in Bitcoin will come from one source: exchange-traded funds (ETF investments), which could slow the pace of increase in the coming years.
The withdrawal of Bitcoin is painful but normal
In a new note, Standard Chartered's Head of Digital Asset Research, Geoff Kendrick, said the bank is postponing the timeline for Bitcoin reaching $500,000 and lowering its year-end price estimates for 2026–2029.
“Although the recent decline in Bitcoin's price has been rapid, we believe it is within expected limits. However, additional corporate purchases of Bitcoin are unlikely as valuations no longer support it. Remaining are ETF purchases, which may be slower than previously expected, to drive price increases going forward. We are lowering our year-end forecasts for 2026-29 and moving the $500,000 forecast to 2030. No crypto winter, just a cold wind,” Kendrick said.
Recent price developments in Bitcoin have worried investors, but Standard Chartered claims that the wave of selling fits historical patterns and does not indicate a structural downturn.
Kendrick pointed out that Bitcoin has fallen about 36% from its all-time high on October 6, which is comparable to other declines following the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF.
“Recent price development in Bitcoin (BTC) has been challenging, but the decline, although rapid, falls within 'normal' expectations,” Kendrick noted, adding that similar declines have occurred over the past two years.
The timing of the peak has reignited fears of a crypto winter, as Bitcoin reached its peak about 18 months after the April 2024 halving, which has been seen in previous cycles.
“Recent losses, the record reached on October 6, occurred 18 months after the April 2024 Bitcoin supply 'halving,' fueling the narrative of a 'crypto winter,'” Kendrick added.
However, Standard Chartered dismisses the idea that the traditional halving-based cycle continues to dominate Bitcoin's price behavior.
“We do not share the view that the halving cycle is still in effect. Rather, we think that long-term ETF buyers are a much more important price driver,” he noted.
Corporate Bitcoin purchases are losing momentum.
According to Standard Chartered, a more concerning signal is that aggressive Bitcoin accumulation by publicly traded digital asset companies (DATs) is coming to an end.
Kendrick stated that valuations no longer justify the expansion of these companies, which have played an increasingly visible role in driving demand over the past year.
“Price developments have forced us to reassess our Bitcoin price forecasts. We particularly believe that companies investing in digital assets (DATs) are likely to have halted their purchases, as valuations, measured by the commonly used metric mNAV, no longer support the expansion of Bitcoin-DATs,” he mentioned.
The bank does not believe in a widespread sell-off from these companies, but they are also unlikely to support prices in the future.
“We expect more of a consolidation rather than direct selling, but DAT purchases are unlikely to provide additional support,” Kendrick said.
ETF investments are a key support.
As corporate Bitcoin purchases decrease, Kendrick believes the next stage of Bitcoin's price development will depend almost exclusively on ETFs.
“We believe that the upcoming increases in Bitcoin's price are effectively due to just one factor, ETF purchases,” he noted.
This change has led Standard Chartered to push back its most optimistic forecasts.
“We are therefore lowering our year-end price estimates for 2026-29 and expect Bitcoin to reach our long-term price estimate of $500,000 only in 2030 (compared to the previous year of 2028),” Kendrick emphasized.
The bank still maintains its long-term optimism, but over a longer period.
“We still believe this target is achievable, as portfolio optimization between Bitcoin and gold continues to show that global portfolios are underweight in Bitcoin. Investment decisions and decisions in investment committees take time, but we expect them to ultimately drive significant Bitcoin gains,” he added.
