Tonight's ETH spike is not just luck—it's the convergence of institutions, policies, and technicals coming together like a 'slaughtering scythe'; the short sellers' coffins are already welded shut.
Let's get straight to the point: Tonight's ETH surge is due to 'institutional buying + Federal Reserve expectations + technical short squeeze'—a triple assault, each phase is a 'guillotine' prepared for the shorts.
1. Institutions treat ETH like 'cabbage storage'; whale wallets are tougher than the Federal Reserve.
Look at the on-chain data—BitMine, this 'ETH whale,' just dumped $68.67 million on December 8 to buy 22,676 ETH. This is already their third increase in December, and their holdings have now reached 3.726 million coins (accounting for 2.9% of total supply). Why do they dare to buy against the trend? Because the U.S. CFTC just approved ETH spot futures, halving the compliance threshold for institutions holding ETH. BitMine is aiming to 'stock up on 5% of circulation'—it's like the owner of your local supermarket knows prices will rise tomorrow and empties the shelves overnight; do you think prices won't go up?
Moreover, there was that spike to 2925 USD last night, where 350 million USD worth of short positions were liquidated in 10 minutes, only to bounce back to 3300—this is not something retail investors can handle; it's the whales 'baiting' the hook: first smashing the market to force retail investors to cut losses, then using large funds to gather all the chips. This kind of 'first kill the shorts, then pull up' script, I saw institutions ruining it back in 2021.
Second, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is 'a clear signal for money', and ETH is the 'floodgate' of liquidity.
Tonight, the probability of the Federal Reserve deciding to cut by 25 basis points is 87%; this is no longer a secret— but you've forgotten that the negative correlation coefficient between ETH and the US dollar index is currently -0.67. When the dollar weakens, ETH is bound to go crazy. That interest rate cut in August 2025 saw ETH go directly from 3800 to 4900, an increase of 28%; now institutional holdings have reached 39%, and this money has nowhere to go but into ETH—after all, the US stock market has hit the ceiling, and cryptocurrency is the only 'pool' that can absorb this much liquidity.
Even more ruthless is that if Powell dares to say 'there will be further cuts' tonight, ETH could directly break through the resistance level of 3400—this is not speculation, but the institutions' 'options layout': currently, the open contracts for ETH futures have reached 38.3 billion USD, and the leverage ratio is nearing the warning line. As long as the bulls apply a little pressure, it could trigger a 'chain reaction of short squeezes', and at that point, the rise will be so dramatic that even your mother wouldn't recognize it.
Third, the technicals have already 'nailed down the bullish momentum', the RSI being overbought is just for the retail investors to see.
You all see the 4-hour chart: ETH has just completed an 'ascending wedge breakout', the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level (3033 USD) has already become a solid bottom, and today it broke through 3368 USD and directly stabilized above the Bollinger band upper limit—this is called a 'continuation gap'. Those in the know understand that once this pattern forms, it typically needs to rise at least 15% before a pullback occurs.
Don’t talk about the RSI reaching 88.88 being overbought—when ETH rose to 4300 in May 2021, the RSI hit 92, and it still kept rising. The current market is a 'main force controlling the market + technical acceleration', and what you think is 'pullback risk' is actually an 'entrapment trap' set by institutions. Those who dare to short will find themselves liquidated tonight.
The final heartfelt statement: tonight's surge is not an 'accident' but a 'necessity'— institutions need the chips, the Federal Reserve needs to inject liquidity, and the technical side needs to break through. With these three conditions met, if ETH doesn't rise, it would be a ghost sighting. Those retail investors who are still hesitating now will regret chasing after it rises to 3500, as it would only serve to feed the whales.
I make this clear: ETH will definitely break 3400 tonight. No matter how much the short sellers talk tough, tomorrow they can only go to the rooftop and line up.
Twelve years in finance, an exclusive guide from pioneers in the crypto world: insight into the market, steady progress, and pay attention to the Heavenly Master’s teachings on how to grow steadily. In investing, risks and opportunities coexist; blind operations are a big taboo in the crypto world!
