B-Talk

#美联储降息预期
In line with expectations, the interest rate was cut by 0.25 percentage points. At the same time, it was determined that the balance sheet reduction would stop by December 31. However, reducing the balance sheet does not mean loosening monetary policy; we should not be blindly optimistic. It is not too late to be happy when the real flood of liquidity arrives.

Gratitude sharing, reading a book a hundred times reveals its meaning!

#MarketPullback
We need to clarify that the recent trends of BTC have been very similar to those of the S&P 500 for a considerable period. Therefore, we need to pay more attention to the futures trends of the S&P 500, as they are more referential. The only difference between them is the magnitude; the trends are the same.
Although the S&P 500 has shown signs of a peak and upward exhaustion, the magnitude of the pullbacks has been very small each time. The upward trend that started from 5000 points is still quite strong. Therefore, until the S&P 500 shows a clear bearish trend, everyone should not blindly judge the depth of BTC's pullback.
I would prefer to see clear resistance signals near the previous high of 6100 in the S&P, as that would confirm a double top on a weekly level. (See Figure One)
Now talking about BTC:
BTC's trend has already shown a weekly level 2B structure + RSI divergence + MACD divergence (Figure Two), so the trading idea is very clear. When the S&P 500 rebounds, observe BTC's trend, and consider shorting on the rebound. Currently, there is strong support at the 100,000 level, and if it confirms with a pullback, it would be an opportunity to enter a short-term long position. If it does not pull back and continues to rebound directly, then finding entry points based on the US stock trends will also yield the highest prices.
In summary: Understand market trends clearly, make trades based on your certainty, plan the profit and loss ratio for each trade, and do not have any illusions about the market.

#MyTradingStyle
To be more precise, this is my trading philosophy:
1. Identify Trends
You can use the correct knowledge you possess to identify trends. Upward or downward.
2. Identify Levels
Also known as cycles: year, month, week, day, hour. These are different levels and cycles. The trends under different cycles may be entirely opposite.
For example, Bitcoin may be in a bullish trend on the yearly level, but show signs of resistance at the top on the monthly level. It may have started to pull back on the weekly level, while it is at the lower end of a consolidating range on the daily level.
You must understand the level you are participating in so that you are not affected by changes in the market; otherwise, you will be confused.
3. Trend Following Trading
Once you have identified the trend and confirmed the level you are participating in, what you need to do is trade in the direction of the trend. For example, if the trend on the weekly level is bearish, then you can look for rebound opportunities on the daily level to short, rather than going long at the lows. If you are not careful, you may incur losses. If you have some trading experience, then you naturally understand what I mean.
4. Set Stop Losses
There is no 100% correct trade, so you need to be responsible for your positions (capital) rather than your assumptions and biases. When you are right, you can naturally make a profit. However, when you are wrong, even a stop loss will give you the confidence to start over and allow you to have the capital to do so. Your assumptions or biases that lead you to take losses will only prove your fantasies to be right. At this point, you need to understand that capital is meant to help us make money, not to indulge in fantasies.
5. Pursue Excellent Returns
Do not let fluctuations at the hourly or minute level cause you to lose your positions at the daily or weekly level.
As shown in the figure: After you have mastered as much knowledge as possible, you may have established a short position at 110000 because you waited for the bearish signal to build a position on the weekly level. Then you should close your position at the bottom of the weekly level, rather than panic and close it during a daily rebound for only a small profit. Subsequently, the market continues to decline, and you can only watch helplessly as the profits that originally belonged to you are lost.
Each line in the figure is a tool to help you identify trends. Can you understand the function of each line? Leave your thoughts so we can discuss together.

$BTC
Bitcoin rebounded after reaching the 112000 position from 75000, encountering the first support at the 100000 position, but did not reach the previous high of 120000. Therefore, the fluctuation range is as shown in the diagram (the upper black rectangular area 100000-112000).

Currently, the trend is near the lower edge of the fluctuation range, with two previous resistance points above, so the current pattern has formed an M-top structure. If the support at the lower edge of 100000 does not appear effectively, then the M-top pattern will be established. If the support is effective, then a W-bottom pattern will be established in the range.

The upward trend line from 75000 to 112000 has broken, and the price of 100000 is a key sensitive position recently. If it breaks down, the upward trend since 75000 will show a definite termination and reversal. There is a high possibility of quickly reaching around 92000 to seek whether the support is effective.

My short position remains open until I observe a significant volume support at the 100000 position that is effective before considering closing or adding to the position #加密市场回调 .

$BTC
Maintain a bearish view, but just need to face it more cautiously.
Originally, trading does not have a 100% win rate, so under the condition of calculating the position correctly, you need to be more careful and cautious. You cannot face chaotic situations with your own assumptions, and you certainly cannot hold onto a position.
Calculating the position correctly means: this is about your maximum acceptable loss amount, which is beyond the stop loss position you expect in a trade.
Chaos refers to: the market is constantly changing, and it cannot be completely predicted or judged. You can only make rough estimates, so when you open a position, you must think about the stop loss location. If the market is in a profitable state according to your plan, then you can consider where to take profit.
Holding onto a position: this should have happened to everyone; some people have moved on, while others are still on the path of "holding on".
If you understand, trading is like a poker table; your capital is your chips, so you won't easily lose chips and won't be frustrated or develop more negative emotions just because you lost once. What you need is a more assured winning chance to profit, not anything else.

#卡尔达诺稳定币提案
In the current market situation, launching such a proposal. The market will provide an answer. Everything is unclear, so waiting is conservative and safe.
The dollar index is down
The S&P 500 is showing signs of exhaustion, and a clear peak phase is about to be established.
$BTC peak characteristics are about to become clear.
There is no reason or basis for you to have higher expectations for the bull market at this time.
Trading: Guarantee your principal, that is your capital at the table. Rather than your hopes and expectations.

#市场回调，观望还是上车？
In a bear market, every rebound is an opportunity to open a position.
What you may have missed is not that you didn't know, but that you couldn't do it. There will always be worries that make you uneasy, or greed from wanting to turn things around that makes you fearful; in short, you just missed it.
Don't let emotions overly control you. These are obstacles you must experience and challenge on the path of trading. You just need to seriously acknowledge the following facts:
1/ Losses are a part of trading
2/ Correct trades can also result in no profit
3/ Incorrect trades do not necessarily mean losses
4/ Frequent trading does not mean more profit

#TradersLeague
As mentioned the day before yesterday, the position $ETH might be wrong because the entry point is too early, and the daily candle has not closed yet. The reason is: the market trades 24 hours, and I cannot, so I cannot find the best buying point, thus I will enter the market at the time I post.
Currently, it seems that the market trend aligns with expectations, and I am fortunate. Again, I share my trading logic and viewpoints for everyone’s reference:
1. Daily level RSI + MACD divergence
2. 2B structure at the daily midpoint
The indicators and structures at the daily level take several days or weeks to manifest; this is not easy. Therefore, the cost and price of trial and error are quite cost-effective; do not miss it, even if the market proves you wrong. But please be clear: before the market proves you wrong, you are correct. Therefore, you need to have the right values, clarify your trading purpose, and use it to strengthen your confidence to overcome emotional conflicts. (This is a trading psychology issue, which we will gradually discuss later)
Now, regarding your position, you should set your stop-loss price below your cost price at some level, while paying attention to the previous support level below the midpoint. If there is a volume-supported level there, you should leave without hesitation. If there is no volume-supported level or if there is a volume breakdown, then you should increase your position.

$BTC
Bitcoin has pulled back from 112,000 to 100,000 and failed to reach its previous high. It is currently facing resistance at 110,000 and has turned downward, touching the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. It is worth noting that Bitcoin's current performance is significantly weaker than the S&P 500. At the same time, it should be clarified that if it does not return to 110,000 in the remaining two trading days of this week, or goes lower than the current level, the weekly candlestick pattern will form a long upper shadow.
Therefore, we need to clarify the following known issues:
1. The upward trendline from 75,000 to 112,000 has been broken. (Red line)
2. The pullback low at 100,000 can be seen as a short-term support level. If it successfully retests this support, then the new trendline will be (black), giving good reason to expect a breakout above the 112,000 high.
3. The range between 100,000 and 112,000 can be considered the current oscillation zone.
4. A weekly RSI divergence signal has appeared.
5. A weekly 2B pattern has emerged.
Summary:
1. If you hold a short position (like me), the cost-effectiveness of continuing to hold is very advantageous.
2. If you do not hold a short position, then you should cherish every small upward opportunity.
3. If you want to enter a long position, then I believe now is not a good opportunity (current price 107,700).

#Tradersleague
The daily candlestick closing has not yet been completed. The strategy for entering early is to set a stop loss; one cannot blindly fantasize. Enter with half of the planned position, and after confirming the market trend, add the remaining half. This can help you avoid the mindset of missing out on opportunities while allowing you to trade without illusions.
The purpose of timely stop loss is to ensure you have bullets to fight on the battlefield. In battle, bullets will be consumed; if you cannot even manage to consume your bullets, then this battlefield may not be suitable for you, or you may not be suitable for this market.
Key point: Losses are a part of trading.

$ETH
This position may be incorrect, as there are no 100% correct trades.
Therefore, the factor that makes you hesitant to open a position is human fear; in the face of fear, you can only rely on yourself to filter out fear and greed.

#加密市场回调
The point at 74500 will be the low point in the next few months. The correction from 110000 has already ended, so should we go long or short?

#美国加征关税 #鲍威尔发言
Recently, the market's trend is focused on the increase in tariffs and the attitude of the Federal Reserve.
In fact, there is no need for excessive interpretation; it is merely a political struggle between the two parties in the U.S. What everyone needs to clarify is that behind the market is politics, so you must pay attention to important hard data, as well as soft data related to sentiment. You can judge hard data, but you cannot anticipate soft data ahead of institutions, which means you cannot be ahead of the advantages.

The negative impact of tariffs has already been fully released by the market within a day, which is exactly what the understanding king wanted. He has always emphasized making America strong to gain public support, following the principle that he who wins the people's hearts wins the world.

Currently, sentiment is primarily focused on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike direction. Although Powell emphasizes that the Federal Reserve is independent and does not comment on politics, only focusing on data changes. However, Trump first used Musk to create a front, and now nominally replacing him also gives the Democratic Party a way out. After all, the Democratic Party is relatively close to the Federal Reserve.

The current market will see more significant changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike actions. Remember, the understanding king's purpose with tariffs is to pressure the Federal Reserve on the interest rate cut issue, which is what he wants. Therefore, it is essential to focus on this trend.

#Trump: I Love $TRUMP
Let me share my holding strategy with you.
The source of funds for spot holdings comes from 10% of contract profits. For example, if the contract profit is 1000u, I will withdraw 50% for daily living expenses. 10% will be used to purchase spot, and the remaining 40% will continue to be traded in the contract account.
Since the opening ratio is fixed each time, the available funds for holdings will gradually increase over time, and similarly, the amount of loss will also increase proportionally. As long as the ratio is strictly followed, the risk-to-return ratio will remain fixed.

Trading and gambling are two different things

#微策略持续增持BTC
I think the current move is more like a "conspiracy". If you have low-level chips, you can also operate in this way. If not, I advise you to give up your fantasy.
In addition, the current response of the Federal Reserve tonight #美联储利率决议即将公布 is very objective. However, I still have an opposing relationship with King Understanding, emphasizing that I will not be affected by politics, that is, King Understanding does not count, I will go my own way, and at the same time emphasize that if inflation rises in the future, it is King Understanding's fault for raising taxes, not mine.

For the future trend of $BTC , I think that if the price will be higher, it needs to be fully consolidated sideways, otherwise it is not a good choice.
For short-term operations, the cost-effectiveness of high altitude is higher than chasing more now.
I wish you all a happy new year, and 2025 coins must win

#2025新年加密愿望清单
To have a group of loyal fans, to achieve results in the field of bringing in orders, and to elevate the scale of capital management to a higher level.